Widespread protests against the Shia fundamentalist regime intensified over the weekend despite the increasingly bloody response of security forces.
The regime cut the Internet on Thursday and is severely restricting phone communications, but a respected human rights group today said it had evidence of 544 deaths and over 10,000 arrests since the protests began on 28 December.
Protests already had spread across the country when they escalated dramatically in Tehran and other cities on Thursday, prompting an even bloodier response from security services.
Regime officials increasingly have taken a hard line against protesters, shifting away from their acknowledgement that desperate economic conditions were driving people into the streets.
The regime is now using terms like “urban terrorist criminals” for protesters who clash with security forces, vowing no leniency against them.
The regime ruthlessly crushed the last wave of countrywide protests in 2022, as it did protest waves before that.
But many ordinary Iranians believe that this time may be different, a view reportedly shared by some regime insiders.
Economic conditions long have been horrific, but skyrocketing inflation and currency depreciation recently have made life even more of a struggle even as chronic electricity and water shortages caused by gross government mismanagement have reached a critical point.
Also, the regime lost credibility when it was unable to respond effectively to Israel’s unprecedented aerial bombing campaign against its nuclear program and other security targets from 13 to 24 June.
In effect, the regime lost a war on the Iranian soil to its longtime chief ideological foe.
Yet the regime’s ruthlessness and tenacity at home and abroad should not be underestimated.
The opposition is fragmented, and unprecedented chants by protesters in recent days in support of Reza Pahlavi, son of the shah who was deposed in the 1979 revolution that established the regime, may represent desperation on their part more than anything else.
If there were to be a change in Iranian leadership, it could well involve the regime’s fearsome military wing, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), forcing the clerics into a symbolic role and easing the Islamic social restrictions hated by much of the public while maintaining an iron grip on the country and a hard-core foreign policy.
The IRGC is larger than the national army and has its own ground troops, navy, air force, intelligence service and commando units. It has a vast business empire.
Its leadership is collegial and large. At the grassroots, it sponsors youth groups and oversees the vast Basij paramilitary militia that among other things brutally crushes demonstrations.
In short, the IRGC is deeply embedded in society.
The efficacy of President Donald Trump’s repeated statements of support for the protests and threats to use military force against the regime is difficult to gage.
US military action against the IRGC would have to be sustained and there is a good chance it would not work. It could spark a nationalist backlash that would help the regime.
Quieter US actions like providing communications support for protesters and staging cyberattacks and other subversion against the regime could make a positive difference.
The regime long has arrested Westerners arbitrarily for use as bargaining chips and currently has about 20 in custody. Victims typically have been held for many months or years in harsh conditions before their countries secure their release.
Western nationals of Iranian origin who are arbitrarily detained are treated as purely Iranian and receive especially brutal treatment.
Risks of arbitrary detention remain high.
Western corporate personnel should avoid travel to Iran. Even those who venture close to the Islamic republic should be careful not to enter its territory inadvertently.
Iranian expatriates, including those with dual citizenship, should not travel to their native country.
