The Iranian regime defied the United States and Israel yesterday by naming Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father as supreme leader, ensuring that hardliners remain in charge in Tehran.
Having killed 86-year-old Ali Khamenei in a heavy airstrike in the opening salvo of the war on 28 February, the US and Israel now will attempt to assassinate Mojtaba.
Mojtaba, 56, was his father’s right-hand man and has close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the regime’s powerful armed force.
The war is existential for the Shia fundamentalist Iranian regime, which is apocalyptic in nature.
What is clear is that the war will not end soon.
Simply surviving the aerial onslaught by its two chief ideological enemies would count as a victory for the regime.
Systematic killing of clerical and IRGC leaders by the US and Israel could weaken the regime although it is far from clear whether a relatively moderate faction willing to negotiate an end to the war will emerge.
The 180,000-strong IRGC and its even larger Basij auxiliary militia at some point are likely to deal ruthlessly with renewed protests by ordinary Iranians, who widely revile the regime.
But there is no organized opposition in Iran or abroad meaning that if ordinary Iranians take to the streets the result could be civil war.
Reports emerged last week of the US arming Iranian-Kurdish rebel fighters based in northern Iraq, raising the prospect of wider arming of Iranian ethnic minorities.
Those minorities collectively make up about 40 percent of the population and tend to be dispersed along the peripheries of the country, but it is important to note that there are many Shia among them and some groups like the Azeris are culturally integrated with the Persian majority.
For now, the Gulf Arab countries and Israel remain under daily Iranian missile and drone attack.
Up to 20 people have been killed so far in the Gulf Arab countries. Two of them were an Indian and Bangladeshi who died yesterday when a projectile hit a residential location in Saudi Arabia’s Al-Kharj city, the capital of the central region of the same name. In Kuwait, two border guards were killed yesterday and an 11-year-old girl was killed Friday. A Pakistani driver was killed in the United Arab Emirates on Saturday when shrapnel from an intercepted drone struck his car in the Al Barsha area west of Dubai.
Israel today suffered its 11th fatality when a man was killed by an Iranian cluster munition at a construction site in Yehud, just east of Tel Aviv.
Air defenses in the Gulf Arab countries and Israel have been performing well and the volume of Iranian missile and drone attacks has declined notably since the opening days of the war.
But there is concern that dwindling stocks of interceptors will lead to more missiles and drones getting through.
In a worrisome development, a desalinization plant in Bahrain suffered unspecified damage in an Iranian drone attack yesterday. Iran may have staged the attack in response to what it said was US bombing of one of its desalinization plants the day before.
Bahrain and the rest of the region heavily depend on desalinization for drinking water.
Meanwhile, Iran is continuing missile and drone attacks on oil and gas production facilities, particularly in Saudi Arabia.
Through a handful of attacks on ships and fiery threats, the IRGC effectively has shut the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Gulf through which about 20 percent of world oil supplies normally pass.
This has caused gasoline and other fuel prices to surge globally.
President Donald Trump has said he may order the US Navy to escort tankers through the Strait, but air and sea drones and mines are easy to conceal in the nearby coves and mountains of Iran and could continue to pose a threat to shipping despite the ongoing US and Israeli pounding of the IRGC.
No travel should be undertaken to any country on the Arabian Peninsula south of Turkey.
Personnel in the Gulf Arab countries should curtail circulation to the utmost, remaining indoors to the extent possible. When they must go out, they should steer well clear of US diplomatic facilities, oil and gas infrastructure, and military bases – all of which are prime Iranian missile and drone targets. They should monitor the advice of local authorities and their embassies. High-rises are not ideal places to be, and those stuck in a multi-story hotel or apartment building should keep in mind that underground parking garages are relatively secure from drone attack but not immune and that stairways rather than elevators should be used in the event of drone attack or fire. Stocking up on food and other essentials is recommended in the smaller Gulf Arab countries.
Personnel in Jordan, where US military bases have been targeted by Iranian missiles and Iranian missiles and drones aimed at Israel constantly fly overhead, should shelter in place.
Israel since 2 March also has been under missile and drone attack from Hizbollah, the Lebanese Shia militia proxy of the IRGC.
Personnel in Israel should curtail circulation sharply, familiarize themselves with the nearest bomb shelters, and heed air attack alerts and directions of authorities without exception. Personnel should keep well clear of the Lebanese border.
The Israeli military is pounding Hizbollah relentlessly, and on Friday sharply escalated bombing of its facilities in heavily Shia south Beirut.
Over 150 Lebanese have been killed and some 300,000 driven from their homes so far, with largely Shia southern and eastern Lebanon affected the most.
Personnel in Lebanon should remain in Christian suburbs north of Beirut and even there should curtail circulation. Central Beirut, where a precision Israeli air attack killed five IRGC operatives and wounded 10 other people in the Ramada hotel on Saturday, should be avoided for the time being.
Thousands of foreign business travelers and tourists remain stranded in the broad array of countries where the war is unfolding.
Limited repatriation flights from Dubai and Abu Dhabi by local airlines Emirates, flydubai and Etihad began on 3 March. Some European airlines have resumed limited flights to the United Arab Emirates since 4 March. Complications were illustrated by the brief halt in flight operations at Dubai airport on Saturday after a drone strike nearby.
Flights remain suspended in Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait.
Some commercial flights are operating from Saudi Arabia and Oman.
Israel’s Ben Gurion International Airport has reopened to limited civilian flights.
Jordan reopened its airspace to commercial flights on 3 March although with the war unfolding daily in the skies above the country it is unclear how many flights there will be.
Lebanon’s Middle East Airlines has been operating some flights to and from Beirut, but these cannot be considered safe given the heavy fighting underway between Israel and Hizbollah.
In addition to placing their citizens on the limited number of commercial flights from the region, Western governments are chartering aircraft and using military planes to repatriate their citizens.
Some multinationals and wealthy individuals have turned to private charter flights, with the fees exorbitant.
Airspace restrictions continue to limit the number of charter flights by small aircraft. Omani authorities today asked private jet operators to avoid using Muscat airport, stressing that government and commercial flights have priority.
Personnel who are stranded and wish to leave the region, with help from their colleagues outside the region, continually should check with airlines while monitoring embassy messages about possible repatriation opportunities.
No attempts should be made to travel to airports to wait for flights to become available.
Flights from Egypt, which thus far is outside the war zone, may be an option.
Departure by boat from northwestern Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel and northern Beirut suburbs in Lebanon may be feasible although safe overland passage to the sea would have to be assured in such cases.
