Yesterday’s high-stakes US-Iran meeting produced neither a breakthrough nor a breakdown, potentially reducing the prospect of President Donald Trump bombing Iran in coming days.
But war clouds very much continue to loom.
Personnel may undertake essential travel to the Gulf Arab monarchies, Israel and Jordan but constantly should monitor regional developments and the status of commercial flights. Nonessential travel to those countries should be put on hold and those on the ground should consider departing of their own accord by commercial means.
Iran should be avoided completely, as should Lebanon and Iraq, home to Iranian proxies.
Following yesterday’s meeting in Geneva, the Iranian regime and Omani mediators said the US and Iran had agreed to continue talks in coming days, including at the technical level, which would suggest active discussion of how the regime would meet Trump’s demand that it drastically curb its nuclear program.
But the Trump administration had no comment after yesterday’s meeting.
The US currently has amassed within striking distance of Iran the most air power it has had in the Middle East since the Iraq invasion of 2003.
Trump’s aims are unclear.
He seems to be focused on Iran’s nuclear program at present, but he also has demanded that the Iranian regime sharply curtail its missile program and sever ties with its proxy militias in the Middle East.
He also has warned the regime not to execute any participants in the massive protests that shook Iran before regime security forces shot dead perhaps 15,000 demonstrators from 8-10 January, while warning against any further killings of protesters.
Trump is said to be ultimately interested in regime change in Iran.
He has put his credibility and that of the US on the line given the extent of the US military buildup.
Badly battered by unprecedented Israeli and US bombing of its nuclear and other strategic assets last June and on the defensive domestically due to the recent protests and acute economic problems, the Iranian regime’s immediate interest is in buying time.
Yet the regime is unlikely to completely give up uranium enrichment and other key aspects of its nuclear program, much less meet Trump’s other demands.
At this point, it may feel that outlasting US bombing would count as a victory.
Indeed, it is not clear what US bombing ultimately might achieve given how entrenched the regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is.
The Iranian regime repeatedly has threatened to respond to any US airstrikes by staging missile attacks against US military personnel in the region. US bases in Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and even Jordan and Turkey conceivably could be targeted.
This service does not believe that the IRGC would target US civilians in the region in missile or terrorist attacks but that scenario cannot be ruled out completely.
The nightmare of the Gulf Arab monarchies is IRGC missile attacks on their oil industry infrastructure.
Under extreme duress, the IRGC could disrupt international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Gulf through which approximately 20 percent of global oil supplies pass.
Even if Israel does not get directly involved in any future US attack on Iran, it could be targeted by Iranian missiles. Tellingly, the US Embassy in Israel today told its staff that they could leave the country and advised them that if they opted to do so they should catch a flight today.
Recent tensions have led some major international airlines to alter flightpaths away from Iran and neighboring Iraq and suspend some flights to the Gulf Arab countries and Israel.
