Iran and the United States yesterday began negotiations for a comprehensive agreement on ending their war, with mediators Qatar and Pakistan citing immediate progress.
Vice President JD Vance and Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf presided at the opening session in Switzerland.
They agreed to a roadmap for the 60-day negotiating period, a “deconfliction mechanism” for curtailing fighting in Lebanon between Israel and Iranian proxy Hizbollah, and a direct communications line to ensure safe passage for oil tankers and other ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
Technical talks are to continue in coming days without Vance and Ghalibaf.
It is difficult to envision the two sides coming to terms in 60 days on the immensely complicated issues of restricting Iran’s nuclear program and lifting sanctions against Iran.
The Iranian regime historically has been unwilling to surrender key aspects of its nuclear program and is well practiced in dragging out negotiations with the US and other Western countries.
For domestic political reasons, President Donald Trump cannot afford to appear weak.
Provisions are in place for the 60-day negotiating period to be extended, but a comprehensive agreement may never be signed, leaving uncertainty hanging over the Gulf region.
The outlines of an open-ended cessation of hostilities took shape on Wednesday when Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian separately signed a memorandum of understanding that cleared the way for comprehensive negotiations and immediately reopened the Strait, the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Gulf that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) effectively had been blockading since the start of the war on 28 February.
The US military lifted the long-distance blockade of Iranian ports it introduced on 15 April, seven days after the US and Iran implemented a tense truce.
The MOU allows Trump to walk away from what had become an aimless war that caused oil prices to surge globally.
It allows Iran to resume foreign oil sales on the open market for the first time since 2018, which will provide relief to the stricken Iranian economy even if sanctions are not lifted.
The MOU calls for the “permanent termination of military operations” not only in the Gulf region but in Lebanon.
Under intense pressure from Trump the hawkish Israeli government on Friday agreed to a new ceasefire with Hizbollah, which it considers a major security threat. Last week’s surge in fighting in southern Lebanon eased yesterday.
The Iranian regime, determined to preserve Hizbollah as a strategic asset, pulled out of the opening session of negotiations with the US in Switzerland on Friday and returned two days later when it seemed Trump was making progress in reining in Israel.
With Israel openly determined to keep ground troops in southern Lebanon, flareups in fighting with Hizbollah are certain.
Most likely these will not completely derail the cessation of hostilities between Iran and the US.
But in the worst case, the IRGC and US military could skirmish, leading to the resumption of heavier combat between them that would include renewed Iranian missile and drone attacks on the Gulf Arab countries, Jordan and Israel.
Personnel may resume routine travel to the Arabian Peninsula south of Turkey with the exceptions of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Personnel traveling to the Gulf Arab countries, Jordan and Israel should monitor Iran-related tensions constantly. They and their employers should be cognizant that commercial flights could be disrupted if the US-Iran ceasefire breaks down and that employers would bear the responsibility of repatriating stranded personnel.
Personnel in Israel should remain well clear of the Lebanese border. They should familiarize themselves with the nearest bomb shelters and be prepared to heed air attack alerts and related instructions from authorities.
