Iran and the United States have been exchanging heavy attacks since Saturday, adding to doubt that they can come to terms on ending their war.
The Iranian regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) today fired more missiles and drones at US military facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and Oman in response to the latest wave of US airstrikes on military-related targets mainly near the Iranian shore of the Strait of Hormuz.
The current cycle of attacks began with an IRGC strike on a Cypriot-flagged container ship it said was passing through the Strait without its approval.
The US responded late Saturday and early Sunday with 140 airstrikes against drone, air-defense and other military targets mainly near the Strait, prompting the IRGC to unleash missiles and drones at Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Qatar.
The Iranian regime punctuated the weekend’s tit-for-tat attacks by declaring the Strait closed to all ships, making clear that it has no intention of retreating from its attempt to control the narrow waterway, through which 20 percent of global oil supplies and other important commodities normally pass.
Friday and Saturday were relatively calm due to intense mediation by Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
But the prior two days saw the IRGC and US military exchange serious attacks after the IRGC fired on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait near the Omani shore, opposite the Iranian shore.
The exchanges that began last week have been the heaviest by far since President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on 17 June separately signed a memorandum of understanding for ending the war.
There have been dozens of casualties in Iran.
Most of the missiles and drones fired by the IRGC at US military facilities in the region have been intercepted with minimal damage and casualties on the ground, although a person was injured by falling shrapnel in Kuwait last week.
The attacks on Jordan were the first in many weeks.
Although it has engaged in extensive dialogue with Iran in recent weeks, Oman came under fire the past two days for cooperating with US efforts to open a shipping channel near its shore of the Strait. The IRGC reportedly fired at unspecified targets on the Omani shore of the Strait and at US military logistical targets in the port of Duqm on the Arabian Sea 341 miles (550 kilometers) south of Muscat, the capital.
The IRGC targeting of Qatar was notable because of that country’s role as a mediator.
The IRGC has frequently launched missiles and drones at the UAE since Trump initiated the war on 28 February, but Saturday’s volley came after a pause.
The Iranian regime was emboldened by outlasting 38 days of devastating bombing by the US and Israel, its far more powerful chief ideological enemies.
Helpless against the aerial onslaught, the IRGC immediately turned to choking the Strait.
Unwilling to give up its chief strategic gain of the war, the IRGC since the signing of the MOU has staged several attacks on tankers and other vessels attempting to pass through the Strait without its permission.
The Trump administration since last week has seemed determined to respond firmly to every such attack.
The entire Gulf region faces an open-ended state of neither peace nor full-scale war, undercutting commercial confidence.
At worst, developments could spin out of control, leading to the resumption of heavy combat that would include major IRGC missile and drone attacks on the Gulf Arab countries, Jordan and Israel.
Personnel may undertake important business travel to the Arabian Peninsula south of Turkey with the exceptions of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Personnel traveling to the Gulf Arab countries, Jordan and Israel should monitor Iran-related tensions constantly. They and their employers should be cognizant that commercial flights could be disrupted if the US-Iran ceasefire collapses and that employers would bear the responsibility of repatriating stranded personnel.
Personnel in the Gulf countries should steer well clear of US diplomatic facilities, oil and gas infrastructure, and military bases – all of which are prime Iranian missile and drone targets. They should monitor the advice of local authorities and their embassies. In the event of an air attack alert, personnel outdoors should seek shelter and those indoors should give wide berth to windows. High-rises are not ideal places to be during air attack alerts, and those in one should keep in mind that underground parking garages are relatively secure from drones but not immune and that stairways rather than elevators should be used in the event of drone attack or fire.
Personnel in Israel should remain well clear of the border with Lebanon, where a fragile truce is in place between Israeli troops and the local Shia militia Hizbollah, an Iranian proxy. They should familiarize themselves with the nearest bomb shelters and be prepared to heed air attack alerts and related instructions from authorities.
Personnel in Jordan should monitor advisories from local authorities and their embassies.
