Mexico remains on edge as security forces work to contain coordinated reprisals in large parts of the country following the killing of the leader of the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel (Spanish abbr: CJNG) on Sunday.
Gunmen have torched vehicles on major highways and roadways in at least 20 states, paralyzing traffic and demonstrating the cartel’s extensive reach.
Many businesses, including convenience stores and state-owned banks, have been looted or set ablaze.
By yesterday, federal security forces had made progress in reasserting control, with normal activity seeming to resume in a majority of the affected states.
Some 10,000 soldiers have been deployed, including 2,000 troops in and around the CJNG core stronghold of Guadalajara, the capital of the west-central state of Jalisco.
As of this morning, the US State Department, Canadian Foreign Ministry and Mexican media said disturbances were continuing in Jalisco and the neighboring state of Nayarit.
Residents and visitors in those states should continue to shelter in place. Travel to those states should remain on hold.
The State Department yesterday cited risks of security operations, road blockages and other serious cartel activity in Colima state, immediately south of Jalisco, Michoacan state, immediately east of Jalisco, the northern border states of Baja California, Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas; the central states of Zacatecas, San Luis Potosi, Guanajuato, Queretaro and Mexico, and the southern state of Quintana Roo.
Residents and visitors in those states should be aware that local security conditions could deteriorate with little or no notice and should continue to monitor developments constantly. Prudence dictates that they minimize circulation for the time being and doublecheck security conditions when they must set out.
Personnel in the rest of Mexico also should monitor developments constantly and be prepared to shelter in place on short notice.
While no airports have been closed due to the unrest that erupted Sunday, flights were cancelled in and out of Guadalajara International Airport and Puerto Vallarta International Airport.
Some flights resumed yesterday, though operations remain limited due to road access disruptions and airline concerns over potential cartel attacks on commercial aircraft.
Personnel should confirm flight status directly with airlines and avoid traveling to airports without confirmation of departure.
Transportation to and from airports should be undertaken only with fresh road security assessments and conducted using vetted, chauffeur-driven vehicles or hotel-arranged taxis.
Personnel should be prepared for extensive security screening at airports.
The initial outbreak of violence following Sunday’s killing by the military of CJNG chief Nemesio Ruben Oseguera Cervantes, known as El Mencho, sparked widespread panic, particularly in western Mexico, with locals staying off the streets and tourists instructed to remain inside hotels.
More than 70 people were killed during the operation targeting El Mencho and the subsequent violence, including over two dozen members of the security forces. At least one civilian died.
El Mencho built the CJNG into the country’s most powerful and violent criminal organization, trafficking large volumes of fentanyl, cocaine and other drugs into the United States.
It is too soon to determine whether the CJNG will remain intact following his death, as it is unclear who is next in line as his immediate successor.
The risk of the cartel fracturing is high, similar to what occurred with the Sinaloa Cartel following the imprisonment in the US of its founder, Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, in July 2024.
Such an outcome would almost certainly lead to escalating cartel violence across numerous states where the CJNG maintains a presence.
Disruptive cartel actions such as roadblocks and explosions typically occur in the first few days but are difficult to sustain and give way to more targeted attacks.
Similar outbreaks of violence have followed previous cartel leader arrests, with different factions attacking authorities or competing for dominance.
Of particular concern is the possibility that cartel factions could regroup after the initial violence and carry out attacks in major cities or against senior government figures.
The CJNG strikes at establishment figures throughout Mexico. It took credit for a daring 2020 attack in Mexico City on Federal Security Secretary Omar Garcia Harfuch.
Some 28 heavily armed CJNG operatives opened fire with high-powered weaponry at a convoy carrying Harfuch, wounding him seriously and killing two of his police escorts. An innocent woman in a separate vehicle also was killed.
The US role in the operation could provoke anti-American sentiment and raise the risk of cartel retaliation against US interests.
