Three days after the stunning US special operations raid that captured strongman Nicolas Maduro, Caracas remains largely deserted.
Regime security forces and auxiliary armed gangs known as colectivos have been patrolling the streets, stopping individuals, checking mobile phones and detaining those found with content related to the US attack.
Videos circulating on social media over the weekend showed gunmen in civilian clothes erecting checkpoints at major intersections of the capital.
In a sign of regime paranoia, at least 14 journalists, most of them affiliated with international news outlets, have been arrested since the weekend.
The regime has regrouped under Vice President and Oil Minister Delcy Rodriguez, who was sworn in as acting president yesterday.
Although a technocrat, she has been considered a hardline Maduro loyalist and central pillar of the regime for more than a decade.
Her brother Jorge Rodriguez is the president of the National Assembly and one of the regime’s most powerful political operators.
Rodriguez continues to denounce Maduro’s arrest, labeling him the only legitimate president of the country and demanding his immediate return.
But she has appeared to soften her rhetoric, calling in a social media post for “a balanced and respectful relationship between the U.S. and Venezuela,” and going so far as to “extend an invitation to the U.S. government to work together on an agenda for cooperation aimed at shared development.”
President Donald Trump has stated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been in contact with Rodriguez, though it is unclear what, if anything, has been agreed.
Despite her integral connection to the regime, the Trump administration appears to have concluded that Rodriguez represents the most viable option for preserving immediate stability in post-Maduro Venezuela.
Yet Trump explicitly has threatened Rodriguez with a fate similar to Maduro’s if she does not assist the US, which appears set to maintain a large military force in the Caribbean for the foreseeable future.
Rodriguez must walk the tightrope of accommodating pressure from the US for political and economic concessions, while keeping regime hardliners on her side, particularly Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez and Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello.
Like Maduro, both men were indicted by the US in 2020 for their alleged leadership roles in the Cartel de Los Soles drug trafficking organization, reducing their maneuvering room under the current US pressure campaign.
More fundamentally, it is unclear how far a staunchly leftist regime rooted in anti-imperialist ideology can realistically bend.
CIA infiltration played a pivotal role in Maduro’s capture, and the Trump administration undoubtedly is now working covertly to cultivate some regime figures and disempower others.
But creating rifts in the regime could unleash armed violence, with the Cabello-commanded colectivos a particularly worrisome factor.
Meanwhile, Trump has given short shrift to the democratic opposition, which has been nowhere to be seen on the ground in Venezuela since Maduro’s capture.
Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has praised the US operation and renewed her vow to return from exile even though the regime has targeted her for arrest.
Yet Trump has publicly questioned her ability to govern, signaling US his reluctance to support a rapid handover to the opposition.
The Trump administration also has been coy since Maduro’s capture about when it envisions elections being held in Venezuela.
Trump’s repeated remarks about dominating the country and carving out a profitable role for US oil companies have further clouded the situation.
This service long has advised against travel to Venezuela and as things currently stand sees no reason to alter that line.
