Risknet17 June 2024

A man brandished a pickax and Molotov cocktail in the northern city of Hamburg yesterday near fans ahead of a UEFA European Football Championship match, prompting police to shoot him in the leg.
 
The 39-year-old German citizen emerged from a small restaurant with the improvised weapons and approached a group of about a dozen police officers, shouting.  He was shot and wounded after refusing demands to drop the weapons.
 
No one else was hurt.
 
The scene unfolded in full view of soccer fans in the St. Pauli district of the city, a 10-minute walk from a so-called fan zone where hours later a large crowd watched a live match on giant TV screens.
 
The match itself took place in a stadium a short train ride away. 
 
The assailant was dressed completely in black, which could indicate jihadist inclinations.
 
But police said mental illness may have played a role and that there were no indications that the attack was tied to the tournament.
 
On Friday evening, police in the small town of Wolmirstedt, 80 miles west of Berlin, shot dead a 27-year-old Afghan man who used a bladed instrument to fatally wound a 23-year-old acquaintance and injure three people watching the opening match of the tournament on TV in the yard of a private house.
 
Police fatally shot the assailant after responding to the scene.
 
Even if neither incident was jihad-related, they underscored serious Islamic terrorism risks facing the tournament, which is being held stadiums in 10 German cities through 14 July.
 
In addition to 2.7 million fans inside stadiums, another 12 million are expected to view matches on large screens set up in public areas. 
 
The two incidents over the weekend made clear that risks extend beyond stadiums and fan zones.
 
Germany is deploying 22,000 police each day of the tournament and has instituted temporary border controls.
 
Senior German security officials have said the main organized terrorism threat at present comes from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) branch that carried out a horrific attack on a Russian concert venue on 22 March.
 
In the attack in Moscow, four camouflage-clad operatives of ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K) burst into a 6,200-seat concert hall minutes before a well-known Russian rock band was to perform. They randomly fired assault rifles and ignited a devastating fire with explosives, killing 145 people and injuring hundreds.
 
Video of the attack indicated that the assailants were trained terrorists rather than amateurs radicalized through social media.
 
Russian authorities the following day reported 11 arrests, including of four migrant workers from Tajikistan in former Soviet Central Asia who were said to have carried out the attack.
 
ISIS-K, which is based in Afghanistan and Pakistan, claimed credit for the attack.
 
German police on 24 December arrested a 30-year-old citizen of Tajikistan suspected of plotting a terrorist attack at the iconic cathedral in Cologne. The arrest took place in Wesel, 60 miles from the city. Four additional suspects from Central Asia subsequently were detained in Duisburg, Herne, Noervenich and Bochum and released after questioning.
 
Authorities on 23 December had stepped up security at the cathedral in response to information about a possible New Year’s Eve attack plot.
 
The cathedral is the largest of its kind in northern Europe and draws millions of tourists annually.
 
Officials said all five of those detained were suspected of being part of “a network” of ISIS-K supporters living in several German states and other European countries.
 
Several other ISIS-K suspects from Central Asia were arrested in various locations in Germany’s North Rhine-Westphalia State last 6 July. They subsequently were charged with plotting high-profile terrorist attacks.
 
Separately, Germany has seen multiple unprovoked attacks in the past decade by unsophisticated singletons responding to the call by ISIS for terrorism with weapons at hand, such as knives and vehicles.
 
Such attacks are difficult to prevent despite extensive monitoring and selective arrests of suspected radicals from the local Muslim minority.
 
This service is not discouraging attendance at UEFA Euro 2024 matches in stadiums but those with tickets should be cognizant of terrorism risks.  Personnel considering watching matches on giant TV screens in fan zones should note that such places are more difficult than stadiums for security forces to protect.  It should be noted that terrorism risks extend to restaurants, bars and other relatively small venues where patrons will watch matches on TV.
 
Generally speaking, personnel considering attending open-air attractions and events such as markets, parades, concerts and festivals should take terrorism risks into account.  Attractions and events without physical security measures ideally should be avoided.  The same advice pertains to stadiums, arenas, theaters and other enclosed venues.  American, British, Israeli and Jewish institutions face relatively high risks of Islamic terrorist attack and should be avoided to the extent practical. Major landmarks and the transportation network also are potential targets.  Personnel should pass as quickly as possible through areas of airports open to the general public.  Multinationals, especially those near vulnerable sites, should keep bomb defenses up to spec.