Iran and Israel have traded air attacks for the first time in two months.
Iran fired missiles at Israel late yesterday in response to an Israeli airstrike against the southern Beirut stronghold of its Lebanese Shia proxy Hizbollah. The Iranian regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it targeted Israeli airbases.
Warplane-launched Israeli missiles then struck Iranian air defenses, missile launch sites, other military targets and a petrochemical plant linked to missile production.
Iran followed up today with missile fire targeting a petrochemical plant in the city of Haifa.
Israel said it intercepted all 30 of the missiles fired by Iran and two fired by Yemen’s Houthi militia, an Iranian proxy. There were no injuries and damage was limited to shrapnel impact on several homes in an Israeli settlement in the West Bank.
There were air attack alerts in Israel proper and booms from interceptions were heard in Tel Aviv and other cities.
The Iranian regime announced today that the cycle of attacks had ended.
Israel also indicated that it would hold its fire.
But further exchanges remain possible in coming hours and days.
Neither the Iranian regime nor Israel’s hawkish, rightist government can afford to look weak in their open-ended struggle against each other, but neither has an interest in seeing the 8 April truce between Iran and the United States collapse completely, returning the entire region to war.
Although it hit no Israeli targets yesterday and today, Iran succeeded in exacerbating tensions between the United States and Israel, which together ignited the war on 28 February by unleashing a major bombing campaign against regime leaders and military and strategic assets.
President Donald Trump urged Israel not to retaliate for yesterday’s missile attacks. When it did, he called on both sides to “stop shooting,” saying “ignorance or stupidity” should not interfere with his administration’s attempt to reach a preliminary agreement with Iran on ending the war.
The unprecedented US-Israeli wartime alliance already was under pressure from Trump’s receptiveness to Iran’s insistence that the truce covering the Gulf region also include Lebanon, where Israel has been engaged in a new war with Hizbollah since 2 March.
Israel regards Hizbollah as a long-term, critical security threat and aims to destroy or more realistically severely degrade it.
But in recent weeks Israel largely has heeded Trump’s public insistence that it not stage air attacks on Hizbollah targets in southern Beirut.
Iran yesterday also succeeded in serving fresh notice that it could enlist the Houthis to renew missile, drone and other attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea, a through which about 12 percent of all global trade passes.
The Iranian regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) since 28 February has gained unprecedented leverage by choking the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Gulf through which some 20 percent of global oil supplies and other important commodities normally pass.
Trump repeatedly has made clear that he is seeking an end to the war.
Having survived devastating US and Israeli bombing from 28 February to 8 April, the Iranian regime is not granting him an easy exit.
Even if the regime and Trump administration reach a framework agreement for ending the war, they might not be able to conclude a follow-up deal on complex issues, not least the imposition of sharp restrictions on the Iranian nuclear program.
In the worst case, US and Iranian diplomatic wrangling and military jockeying in the Strait of Hormuz could spin out of control, leading to a complete breakdown of the 8 April ceasefire and renewal of steady IRGC missile and drone attacks on the Gulf Arab countries and Israel.
Whatever happens in the Gulf, Israel and Hizbollah are bound to remain in a state of conflict.
This service continues to recommend that all travel to the Arabian Peninsula south of Turkey be suspended. Those on the ground should consider departing by their own means.
Personnel who must be in the Gulf Arab countries should be cognizant that commercial flights would be disrupted again if the US-Iran ceasefire breaks down and full-scale hostilities re-erupt. They should curtail circulation and steer well clear of US diplomatic facilities, military bases and oil and gas infrastructure – all of which were prime Iranian missile and drone targets from 28 February to 8 April. They should monitor the advice of local authorities and their embassies. High-rises are not ideal places to be, and those in a multi-story hotel or apartment building should keep in mind that underground parking garages are relatively secure from drone attack but not immune and that stairways rather than elevators should be used in the event of drone attack or fire. In the event of an air attack alert, windows should be given wide berth.
The Gulf Arab countries routinely are arresting people, including Westerners, who share cell phone videos of or social media posts about local military assets and Iranian missile and drone impacts.
Even seemingly innocent sharing of such materials should be avoided.
Personnel who must be in Israel should continue to curtail circulation, familiarize themselves with the nearest bomb shelters, and heed air attack alerts and directions of authorities without exception. Personnel should keep well clear of the Lebanese border.
Personnel who must be in Lebanon should remain in Christian suburbs north of Beirut and even there should curtail circulation. They should avoid central Beirut entirely.
Lebanon’s Middle East Airlines has operated some flights to and from Beirut’s international airport, which is situated in the Hizbollah-dominated southern suburbs of the city. But the airport and roads to it cannot be considered safe given recent heavy Israeli airstrikes in the immediate vicinity.
In past wars, foreigners evacuated Lebanon by boat from the Christian suburbs north of Beirut, an option feasible only if a place on a professionally operated boat and secure transportation to water’s edge is pre-arranged.
Personnel in Jordan, where US military bases were targeted by Iranian missiles and drones aimed at Israel constantly flew overhead from 28 February to 8 April, should continue to curtail circulation. The country should not be visited and those on the ground should depart by their own means.
