Iran and the United States early today exchanged fire for the first time in a month.
The US military struck launchers on Iran’s Larak Island that it said were poised to launch rockets armed with mines into nearby waters of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran said there were several casualties, without providing details.
It said it responded by firing at US military forces stationed at King Faisal and Prince Hassan Air Bases in Jordan and Al Minhad Air Base, 15 miles (24 kilometers) south of Dubai in the United Arab Emirates.
Jordan said it intercepted eight missiles that entered its airspace and the UAE said it intercepted a drone.
No casualties or damage were reported in either country.
The exchange was limited.
But it illustrated that the Iran-US war is far from over.
President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on 17 June separately signed a memorandum of understanding for halting hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz that collapsed two weeks later due to persistent Iranian attacks on oil tankers and other ships passing through the waterway without its permission.
President Donald Trump in July staged calibrated but significant airstrikes on mostly coastal assets of the Iranian regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
But the airstrikes failed to stop IRGC attacks on ships in the Strait and Trump backed off threats to stage far heavier bombing apparently due to doubts about what it might achieve and lobbying from Gulf Arab countries, which took Iranian threats to strike their oil industries seriously.
Trump last month shifted to economic warfare, threatening sanctions against countries that trade and engage in financial transactions with Iran.
He earlier reimposed a long-distance blockade of Iranian ports enforced by interceptions of ships by the US Navy outside the Gulf.
The Iranian economy was imploding even before the war began six months ago.
But hardliners assumed control of the Shia fundamentalist Iranian regime following the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and scores of other key figures in devastating US and Israeli bombing at the outset of the war.
They regard themselves as waging an existential war and regard control of the Strait as a hard-won strategic gain.
By choking oil exports through the Strait, they aim to keep global fuel prices high and maintain domestic political pressure on Trump.
Trump over the weekend clearly felt compelled to respond militarily to continued Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait and attempts at mining a channel closer to the Omani shore of the waterway, opposite the Iranian shore.
The IRGC, as in recent months, responded with missile and drone attacks on US military forces in the region.
More such exchanges are certain, with the IRGC possibly firing on economic targets in Gulf Arab countries to a limited extent.
In the worst case, developments could spin out of control, leading to the resumption of all-out war that would include major Iranian missile and drone attacks on the Gulf Arab countries, Jordan and Israel.
Personnel may undertake important business travel to the Arabian Peninsula south of Turkey with the exceptions of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Personnel traveling to the Gulf Arab countries, Jordan and Israel should monitor Iran-related tensions constantly. They and their employers should be cognizant that commercial flights could be disrupted if US-Iran hostilities escalate and that employers would bear the responsibility of repatriating stranded personnel.
Personnel in the Gulf countries should steer well clear of US diplomatic facilities, oil and gas infrastructure, and military bases – all of which are prime Iranian missile and drone targets. They should monitor the advice of local authorities and their embassies. In the event of an air attack alert, personnel outdoors should seek shelter and those indoors should give wide berth to windows. High-rises are not ideal places to be during air attack alerts, and those in one should keep in mind that underground parking garages are relatively secure from drones but not immune and that stairways rather than elevators should be used in the event of drone attack or fire.
Personnel in Saudi Arabia should not visit the southwestern provinces of Najran, Jizan and Asir, which are prime targets for missile and drone attacks by the Yemen-based Houthi militia, an ally of Iran.
Personnel in Israel should remain well clear of the border with Lebanon, where a fragile truce is in place between Israeli troops and the local Shia militia Hizbollah, an Iranian proxy. They should familiarize themselves with the nearest bomb shelters and be prepared to heed air attack alerts and related instructions from authorities.
Personnel in Jordan should monitor advisories from local authorities and their embassies.
