The Trump administration and Iranian regime are reviewing a rough plan for ending the war that Pakistani mediators drafted following intense diplomacy overnight.
The plan calls for an immediate ceasefire followed by negotiations on a broader peace settlement to be concluded within 15 to 20 days, according to sources involved.
A regional solution reportedly is envisioned for ending Iran’s current blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Gulf through which 20 percent of global oil supplies normally pass.
Reportedly, Iran would foreswear development of nuclear bombs and receive relief from painful economic sanctions.
Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir, the most powerful man in his country, reportedly brokered the plan in overnight phone calls with US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.
President Donald Trump in the past week has mentioned ending the war several times while also threatening to expand the US bombing campaign to electric power plants and other civilian infrastructure beginning tomorrow.
The Iranian regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been devastated by US and Israeli bombing that began on 28 February but has not cracked.
It has gained leverage by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused global fuel prices to surge, including in the United States.
The Iranian regime is fighting an existential war and its Shia fundamentalist ideology is apocalyptic in nature.
Trump put US credibility and his own on the line by launching the war.
The war most likely will end through diplomacy. But with neither side appearing desperate at present, a deal could be many weeks or even several months away.
The IRGC continues to stage daily drone and missile attacks on the Gulf Arab countries in retaliation for incessant US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran.
The doomsday scenario is that the electricity and desalinization plants that make urban life in the Gulf possible will be attacked systematically and that attacks on oil production infrastructure will escalate to the point of devastation.
The Gulf Arab countries should be visited only on the most essential business and those on the ground should consider departing by their own means. With help from colleagues outside the region, those wishing to leave continually should check with airlines while monitoring embassy messages about possible repatriation opportunities.
No attempts should be made to travel to airports to wait for flights to become available.
So far, no commercial airliners with passengers aboard have been hit by Iranian fire or suffered a war-related accident. But risks are serious.
It is for good reason that most airlines from outside the region continue to suspend flights.
Personnel in the Gulf Arab countries should curtail circulation to the utmost, remaining indoors to the extent possible. When they must go out, they should steer well clear of US diplomatic facilities, military bases and oil and gas infrastructure – all of which are prime Iranian missile and drone targets. They should monitor the advice of local authorities and their embassies. High-rises are not ideal places to be, and those stuck in a multi-story hotel or apartment building should keep in mind that underground parking garages are relatively secure from drone attack but not immune and that stairways rather than elevators should be used in the event of drone attack or fire. During air attack alerts, windows should be given wide berth. Stocking up on food and other essentials is recommended in the smaller Gulf Arab countries.
The Gulf Arab countries routinely are arresting people, including Westerners, who share cell phone videos of or social media posts about local military assets and Iranian missile and drone impacts.
Even seemingly innocent sharing of such materials should be avoided.
The IRGC has seeded the Gulf monarchies and other Arab countries with sleeper operatives.
This service long assessed that the IRGC probably would not target American civilians in terrorist attacks. But nothing can be taken for granted at present given that the Iranian regime is in an existential war against the US and Israel.
The longer the war goes on the greater the prospect that the IRGC will succeed in orchestrating terrorism in the region.
Iran is firing far fewer missiles at Israel than it did in the initial days of the war but there is no end in sight to such attacks.
Hizbollah is firing rockets and drones at northern Israel and a limited number of missiles at central Israel, inflicting damage and occasional casualties.
Personnel who must be in Israel should curtail circulation sharply, familiarize themselves with the nearest bomb shelters, and heed air attack alerts and directions of authorities without exception. Personnel should keep well clear of the Lebanese border.
Israel has been bombing Hizbollah targets in heavily Shia southern and eastern Lebanon intensely while escalating ground operations in the south.
Israel continues to fiercely bomb the predominantly Shia southern suburbs of Beirut, where Hizbollah has its headquarters.
There have been multiple precision Israeli airstrikes in religiously mixed central Beirut, Lebanon’s governmental and business hub, causing deaths and significant damage.
Israeli bombing has killed over 1,200 Lebanese and wounded thousands, with more than 1 million displaced.
Personnel in Lebanon should remain in Christian suburbs north of Beirut and even there should curtail circulation. They should avoid central Beirut entirely.
Lebanon’s Middle East Airlines has operated some flights to and from Beirut’s international airport, which is situated in the Hizbollah-dominated southern suburbs of the city. But the airport and roads to it cannot be considered safe given heavy Israeli airstrikes in the immediate vicinity.
In past wars, foreigners evacuated Lebanon by boat from the Christian suburbs north of Beirut, an option feasible only if a place on a professionally operated boat and secure transportation to water’s edge is pre-arranged.
Jordan reopened its airspace to commercial flights on 3 March although with the war unfolding daily in the skies above the country it is unclear how regular flights will be.
Personnel in Jordan, where US military bases have been targeted by Iranian missiles and Iranian missiles and drones aimed at Israel constantly fly overhead, should shelter in place. The country should not be visited and those on the ground should depart by their own means.
