After holding off on the massive airstrikes against Iran that he had threatened, President Donald Trump said yesterday that talks with the Iranian regime would begin today.
Iran said no face-to-face talks with the United States were imminent.
But it did say it was engaged in detailed talks with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz that could lead to the reopening of the waterway to oil tankers and other ships.
Oman also cited progress in those talks, which reportedly involve joint oversight of navigation through the Strait, through which 20 percent of global oil supplies normally pass.
Unable to respond to devastating US and Israeli bombing in the early weeks of the war, the Iranian regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) choked the Strait, giving it leverage it is now playing to the hilt.
Trump huddled with senior security advisors on Friday and indicated he was poised to unleash far heavier attacks on Iran than the 13 consecutive nights of significant but limited US bombing last month.
Seemingly in anticipation of major US action, US Embassies in the Gulf Arab countries and Jordan on Saturday issued a security alert citing “the potential for unforeseen escalation” and calling on Americans on the ground to “be prepared for flight cancellations” and advising them to “consider departing, or be prepared to depart should there be escalation.”
Trump later on Saturday pulled back from unleashing attacks, saying a phone call with Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and input from other Gulf Arab countries had persuaded him to remain open to dialogue with Iran.
Having suffered Iranian missile and drone attacks since the start of the war, the Gulf Arab countries take seriously Iran’s threat to target their oil production facilities and civilian infrastructure if the US hits economic and civilian targets in Iran.
Trump could yet order massive attacks on Iran but seems to realize the risks and complexity involved.
Emboldened by surviving the US war against it, the Shia fundamentalist Iranian regime is bound to continue implicitly threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz even if it reaches a deal with Oman on management of the waterway, which under international law is supposed to be unconditionally open to all vessels.
There is very little chance the US and Iran will ever reach a broader agreement on complex issues like curbing the Iranian nuclear program.
The entire Gulf region faces an open-ended state of neither full peace nor full war.
In the worst case, developments could spin out of control, leading to the resumption of all-out war that would include major Iranian missile and drone attacks on the Gulf Arab countries, Jordan and Israel.
Personnel may undertake important business travel to the Arabian Peninsula south of Turkey with the exceptions of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Personnel traveling to the Gulf Arab countries, Jordan and Israel should monitor Iran-related tensions constantly. They and their employers should be cognizant that commercial flights could be disrupted if US-Iran hostilities escalate and that employers would bear the responsibility of repatriating stranded personnel.
Personnel in the Gulf countries should steer well clear of US diplomatic facilities, oil and gas infrastructure, and military bases – all of which are prime Iranian missile and drone targets. They should monitor the advice of local authorities and their embassies. In the event of an air attack alert, personnel outdoors should seek shelter and those indoors should give wide berth to windows. High-rises are not ideal places to be during air attack alerts, and those in one should keep in mind that underground parking garages are relatively secure from drones but not immune and that stairways rather than elevators should be used in the event of drone attack or fire.
Personnel in Israel should remain well clear of the border with Lebanon, where a fragile truce is in place between Israeli troops and the local Shia militia Hizbollah, an Iranian proxy. They should familiarize themselves with the nearest bomb shelters and be prepared to heed air attack alerts and related instructions from authorities.
Personnel in Jordan should monitor advisories from local authorities and their embassies.
