The Iran-backed Shia militant complex Hizbollah continues to suffer politically after being humiliated in its recent war with Israel.
Nawaf Salam, a former diplomat who had been serving as head of the International Court of Justice, officially became prime minister on Saturday at the head of a 24-member cabinet evenly divided between Muslims and Christians.
With the United States on Friday openly declaring Hizbollah participation in the cabinet a “red line” that would block desperately needed reconstruction aid, the Shia militant group for the first time in years did not directly influence the choice of the five Shia ministers.
Instead, its small Shia ally Amal, headed by parliament speaker Nabih Berri, chose four ministers and gave its consent to the choice of the fifth.
Amal almost certainly discussed the five names with Hizbollah but only behind closed doors.
Meanwhile, the Lebanese Forces, a Maronite Christian party ardently opposed to Hizbollah, joined the cabinet for the first time in years. It got four ministers.
Hizbollah now lacks the direct influence over a third of ministers, the amount required to block legislation.
Shia are Lebanon’s largest sect.
Under the constitution, the prime minister must be a Sunni, the president a Christian and the speaker of parliament a Shia.
Parliament approved Salam as prime minister on 13 January, with Hizbollah opposing him but unable to thwart his selection.
Upon parliamentary approval of Salam’s cabinet on Saturday, acting Prime Minister Najib Mikati stepped down. He had been in power since 2021 but never secured backing from the parliament elected in 2022.
Parliament on 9 January filled the long-vacant presidency, electing army chief Joseph Aoun to the post after Hizbollah lifted its initial resistance and supported him in the second round of voting.
Lebanon had not had a president since the term of Hizbollah-supported Michel Aoun, no relation to Joseph Aoun, expired in 2022.
Aoun is strongly backed by the United States and Saudi Arabia, archrivals of Iran.
Salam also is pro-West and keen on cooperation with the Gulf Arab monarchies, which several years ago cut funding to Lebanon as the political influence of Iran-backed Hizbollah crested.
Hizbollah’s militia remains more powerful than the Lebanese military, and Aoun and Salam indirectly have demanded that the group disarm, treading carefully to avoid a direct threat that could lead to civil war.
Indeed, no party in Lebanon has an interest in renewing the devastating 1975-1990 sectarian civil war.
But Hizbollah’s former political dominance partly derived from its powerful arsenal, much of which was expended or destroyed in the recent conflict with Israel.
The group almost certainly will be unable to rearm to its previous level given the fall on 8 December of the Iran-backed Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, which facilitated the overland shipment of Iranian weapons to Lebanon.
The Lebanese public was enraged at the 3,700 deaths and 16,000 injuries and serious destruction inflicted during the nearly 14 months of fighting between Hizbollah and Israel.
Hizbollah and its Iranian patron are unable to pay for reconstruction in the heavily Shia south and east of the country, with the financial burden falling instead on the Salam government and its international backers.
Hizbollah also is less able to project strength following Israel’s killing of its longtime leader Hassan Nasrullah and other top commanders in the recent conflict.
The 60-day ceasefire that Hizbollah and Israel agreed to on 27 November expires has been extended to 18 February, and both sides have failed to honor its terms fully.
Although both Hizbollah and Israel have strong reasons not to allow their conflict to re-erupt, another round of hostilities is possible.
Meanwhile, the Lebanese economy prior to the recent Hizbollah-Israel fighting suffered its worst meltdown ever and recovery is a long way off under the best of circumstances.
Salam and the new president are not directly affiliated with the notoriously crooked and incompetent elite of various religious sects that ended up destroying government services and impoverishing the middle class and leaving the working class struggling to eat.
But the two new leaders will be hard pressed to implement the sweeping reforms required to stabilize the economy.
In short, the country’s future remains clouded in uncertainty.
No travel to Lebanon can be sanctioned.
