The US Embassy in Qatar today advised Americans to “shelter in place until further notice” due to possible Iranian retaliation for yesterday’s US bombing of key nuclear sites.
The embassy said it issued the stark security alert out of an “abundance of caution,” indicating it had no evidence an Iranian attack was imminent.
But Iranian retaliation could include missile and drone attacks on US troops in the region, including at Al Udeid Air Base southwest of Doha.
US military personnel also are present in Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Iraq and Jordan.
US diplomats across the region also are at risk.
Terrorist attacks on US military and diplomatic personnel by operatives of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are less likely but cannot be ruled out.
In the view of this service, Iran is unlikely to target private US citizens directly but that scenario cannot be ruled out.
Reflecting elevated risks, major airlines cancelled flights to the region yesterday and today.
President Donald Trump brought the US into the Israel-Iran war with heavy air attacks on three Iranian nuclear facilities, including with massive bombs that destroyed or at least severely damaged uranium enrichment facilities deep underground.
Israel, which had severely degraded nuclear facilities, missile depots and launchers and other Iranian military assets since commencing air attacks on 13 June, lacks such bombs.
In announcing the US bombing raid, Trump vowed to respond militarily to any Iranian retaliation indicated a preference not stage further attacks and urged Iran to negotiate the elimination of what remains of its nuclear program.
Iran vowed to respond to the US attack but has no good options.
Critically weakened and humiliated by the two countries it has cast for decades as its main enemies and reviled domestically for its incompetence and brutal repression, the Iranian Shia fundamentalist regime’s chief interest now is its own survival.
Iranian attacks targeting US forces in the region seem likely in coming days, although they could be calibrated to avoid a heavy US response.
A major cycle of violence involving Iran and US forces in the region is possible, however.
If desperate, the Iranian regime could cause global fuel prices to skyrocket by striking oil-production facilities in the Gulf Arab monarchies or mining the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. But such moves probably would cripple Iran’s own critical oil industry.
Meanwhile, Israel is expected to continue its air attacks on Iran for at least several more days as it moves down its target list.
Iranian missile attacks on Israel injured 86 Israelis early yesterday and devastated multiple residential buildings in Tel Aviv and nearby Ness Ziona.
At least 24 Israeli civilians have been killed and hundreds hurt since 13 June, many of them in Israel’s densely populated coastal strip.
Iran has fired some 400 of its estimated 2,000 long-range ballistic missiles at Israel so far, with most intercepted, partly with help from the US military.
Iran has been firing fewer missiles at Israel in recent days, indicating Israeli success in destroying launchers and missile storage sites on the ground in Iran.
Both Israel and the US, however, reportedly are beginning to run low on missile interceptors.
By country, here are some of the many moving parts of the crisis and our advice:
Israel – Israelis continue to face long stints in bomb shelters. Concerned about Iranian-orchestrated terrorism, Israel closed its embassies and advised its citizens abroad to refrain from displaying Israeli or Jewish symbols.
Regular commercial air traffic was cut off suddenly when the war began. But limited special flights have begun in recent days, including the first evacuations of Americans organized by the US Embassy.
Several countries have organized buses to take their citizens in Israel to Jordan, where limited flights are available, and Egypt.
Personnel in Israel should monitor developments constantly, follow instructions from authorities and familiarize themselves with the nearest bomb shelters. They should avoid points north of Haifa due to the possibility of the Iran-allied Lebanese Shia militant complex Hizbollah renewing rocket attacks. The West Bank should be avoided due to the ongoing upsurge in violence by Palestinian extremists, radical Jewish settlers and the Israeli military.
Iran – this service has long advised against travel to Iran.
Jordan – Jordanian authorities have reported shooting down some Iranian missiles and drones targeting Israel. US warplanes reportedly have participated in the downings. King Abdullah II is in a difficult position, wary of both appearing pro-Israel in the eyes of the majority of Jordanians who are of Palestinian origin and alienating the US, his essential strategic patron, by appearing anti-Israel.
Personnel should suspend travel to Jordan. Those who must be on the ground should curtail circulation to the utmost and monitor developments constantly. They should stick to West Amman and other affluent areas. Due to terrorism risks, tourist attractions, churches, shopping malls, eating and drinking establishments and other Western hangouts should be avoided. Personnel ideally should get around by chauffeur-driven company vehicle. Those lacking that option should use only hotel vehicles or established taxi services. Personnel regularly should update colleagues outside the country on their well-being and concerns. They absolutely should not discuss Israel, religion, US foreign policy or other sensitive topics with locals, even trusted colleagues.
Lebanon – The US State Department yesterday ordered the departure of family members and nonemergency personnel from the US Embassy in Beirut. It urged US citizens in Lebanon to exercise heightened caution and monitor developments closely. It noted that although Beirut’s international airport remains open, some airlines have suspended or canceled flights and that commercial travel options are increasingly limited.
The US bombing of Iran heightened concern that Hizbollah could launch missiles and drones at Israel despite being badly battered by the Jewish state in 14 months of conflict that ended with a truce in November. Israel undoubtedly would respond with heavy bombing of Hizbollah targets in southern and eastern Lebanon and in south Beirut, where the international airport is located.
This service continues to advise against travel to Lebanon. Personnel who absolutely must be in the country should not venture beyond Christian suburbs north of central Beirut. They should consider departing the country by their own means.
Syria – this service long has advised against travel to Syria.
Iraq – this service long has advised against travel to Iraq.
Kuwait and Bahrain – Personnel should suspend travel to both countries. Those on the ground should monitor developments closely and consider departing by their own means overland through Saudi Arabia or by commercial flight.
Qatar – The diplomatically astute Qatari royal regime, which hosts the US Air Force at Al Udeid Air Base and has good working relations with Iran, positioned itself to stay out of the Israel-Iran war. But the entry of the US into the fray raised risks of Iranian attacks on locally based US forces. Under the best of circumstances, flights to Doha could be cut off.
Nonessential travel to Qatar should be avoided. Those on the ground should monitor developments closely and consider departing by their own means.
Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates – Once avowedly anti-Iran, the Saudi and Emirati royal regimes have stabilized relations with Tehran in recent years, chiefly because they have come to doubt that the US would defend them militarily in the event of conflict. Still, they continue to host the US military. Their nightmare is that under extreme duress in battling Israel and/or the US, Iran would attack their oil industries, their economic lifeblood.
Personnel should suspend nonessential travel to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Those on the ground should monitor developments constantly and consider leaving by their own means. It is essential to keep in mind that commercial flights could be halted at any moment.
Oman – A longtime trusted intermediary between Iran and the US, Oman was put on edge by the US entering the Iran-Israel war. Oman sits on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf through which the US Navy and Iranian and Gulf Arab oil exports pass.
Personnel should suspend nonessential travel to Oman. They should be aware of potential cancellations of commercial flights.
