Israel and Iran continue to trade heavy air attacks, with no end in sight.
Since Israel initiated hostilities in the early hours of Friday, its jetfighters, drones and missiles repeatedly have targeted Iranian nuclear sites, military and intelligence facilities, and missile depots and launchers.
Israel over the weekend struck fuel depots and refineries in an apparent warning that it could target Iran’s crucial crude oil export sector.
Israel has established control over Iranian skies by shattering what remained of the Iranian air defense network after it staged a limited but devastating attack on 26 October.
Israel killed over 20 top commanders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and military in its initial attacks on Friday as well as leading nuclear scientists, and has continued to target key security figures for assassination, undermining Iranian war planning.
Iran reports at least 224 people killed and over 1,200 injured since Friday, many of them civilians.
Israel, however, is not yet close to meeting its war aim of destroying Iran’s nuclear program, which it views as an existential threat.
It has struck two main nuclear sites in Natanz and Isfahan along with some smaller ones, but only has managed to collapse entrances and airshafts to enrichment facilities deep underground, most notably at the major Fordow complex.
Senior Israeli officials have said the air campaign could continue for 14 days or more, but the country may lack the bunker-busting bombs likely needed to destroy the underground facilities.
Iran has fired 350 ballistic missiles at Israel so far, killing over 20 civilians and wounding hundreds, many of them in Israel’s densely populated coastal strip.
Of the eight fatalities last night, two were in a fortified room that was splintered in a direct hit to an apartment building.
Israeli authorities responded by declaring that such reinforced rooms, which Israeli residences are required to have, remain the best bet during air attacks.
The closed US Consulate in Tel Aviv suffered minor damage in a missile attack early today.
Israel has intercepted most incoming missiles, partly with the help of the US military.
President Donald Trump yesterday called for “a deal” to end the fighting, continuing to indicate that he is not inclined to join in Israeli airstrikes, including with US bunker-busting bombs.
Iran’s Shia fundamentalist regime is deeply unpopular among Iranians and is chiefly interested in its survival.
It categorically refused to scrap enrichment in recent negotiations with the US, and has given no sign of willingness to so now that it is under direct attack from Israel, which long has played a central role in its ideology as implacable enemy.
It likely calculates that it leads a country of 90 million people with 1 million men under arms that cannot be defeated militarily with air strikes alone.
By country, here are some of the many moving parts of the crisis and our advice:
Israel –Commercial air traffic was cut off suddenly on Friday. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu advised Israelis that they would face long stints in bomb shelters as the war unfolds. Concerned about IRGC-orchestrated terrorism, Israel closed its embassies and advised its citizens abroad to refrain from displaying Israeli or Jewish symbols.
Poland, Taiwan and a few other countries have organized buses to take their citizens to Jordan, where flights are available. The US and most other countries have made no moves to facilitate evacuations of their citizens.
Personnel in Israel should monitor developments constantly, follow instructions from authorities and familiarize themselves with the nearest bomb shelters. They should avoid points north of Haifa due to the possibility of the Iran-allied Lebanese Shia militant complex Hizbollah renewing rocket attacks. The West Bank should be avoided due to the ongoing upsurge in violence by Palestinian extremists, radical Jewish settlers and the Israeli military.
Iran – this service has long advised against travel to Iran.
Jordan – Jordanian authorities have reported shooting down some Iranian missiles and drones since Friday, saying it was concerned they would have fallen short of Israel and hit Jordanian territory. US warplanes reportedly participated in the downings. King Abdullah II is in a difficult position, wary of both appearing pro-Israel in the eyes of the majority of Jordanians who are of Palestinian origin and alienating the US, his essential strategic patron, by appearing anti-Israel.
Personnel should suspend travel to Jordan. Those who must be on the ground should curtail circulation to the utmost and monitor developments constantly. They should stick to West Amman and other affluent areas. Due to terrorism risks, tourist attractions, churches, shopping malls, eating and drinking establishments and other Western hangouts should be avoided. Personnel ideally should get around by chauffeur-driven company vehicle. Those lacking that option should use only hotel vehicles or established taxi services. Personnel regularly should update colleagues outside the country on their well-being and concerns. They absolutely should not discuss Israel, religion, US foreign policy or other sensitive topics with locals, even trusted colleagues.
Lebanon – Hizbollah, badly battered by Israel in 14 months of conflict that ended with a truce in November, has denounced Israel’s attack on Iran but has not threaten to renew rocket attacks on Israel. Renewal of those attacks cannot be ruled out, however, and Israel undoubtedly would respond with heavy bombing of Hizbollah targets in southern and eastern Lebanon and in south Beirut, where the country’s only international airport is located.
This service continues to advise against travel to Lebanon. Personnel who absolutely must be in the country should not venture beyond Christian suburbs north of central Beirut. They should consider departing the country by their own means.
Syria – this service long has advised against travel to Syria.
Iraq – this service long has advised against travel to Iraq.
Kuwait and Bahrain – Personnel should suspend travel to both countries. Those on the ground should monitor developments closely and consider departing by their own means overland through Saudi Arabia or by commercial flights.
Qatar – The diplomatically astute Qatari royal regime, which hosts the US Air Force at Al Udeid Air Base and has good working relations with Iran, is well positioned to stay of the war between Iran and Israel provided the US does not enter the fray. Nothing can be taken for granted, however. Under the best of circumstances, flights to Doha could be cut off.
Nonessential travel to Qatar should be avoided. Those on the ground should monitor developments closely and consider departing by their own means.
Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates – Once avowedly anti-Iran, the Saudi and Emirati royal regimes have stabilized relations with Tehran in recent years, chiefly because they have come to doubt that the US would defend them militarily in the event of conflict. Still, they continue to host the US military. Their nightmare is that under extreme duress in battling Israel and/or the US, Iran would attack their oil industries, their economic lifeblood.
Personnel should consider suspending nonessential travel to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Those on the ground should monitor developments constantly and consider leaving by their own means. It is essential to keep in mind that commercial flights could be halted at any moment due to the Israel-Iran war.
Oman – A longtime trusted intermediary between Iran and the US, Oman is well situated to remain aloof to the war between Israel and Iran so long as the US does not become involved. A bigger conflict could be trouble since Oman sits on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf through which the US Navy and Iranian and Gulf Arab oil exports pass.
Personnel should consider suspending nonessential travel to Oman. They should be aware of potential cancellations of commercial flights.
