There is no end in sight to the wide-ranging, massively disruptive war that erupted with US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran Saturday.
Heavy airstrikes against Iran are continuing for a third day today, with Iran in turn keeping up missile and drone fire at US military bases across the region and at Israel. Iran also is launching drones at a limited number of high-rise buildings, civilian airports and oil and gas production facilities in the Gulf Arab countries with the aim of getting them to pressure Washington to halt the war.
Air defenses in the Gulf Arab countries and Israel have performed reliably thus far, although at least 10 civilians have been killed in Israel and six in the Gulf Arab countries, with scores more injured.
With commercial flights cut off, hundreds of thousands of tourists and business travelers have been stranded across the Middle East.
The fighting expanded yesterday to Lebanon, where the local Shia militia Hizbollah fired rockets at Israel on behalf of the Iranian regime, drawing relentless Israeli airstrikes in response, including against Hizbollah targets in heavily Shia southern Beirut.
Aiming to drive up global oil prices to pressure the United States, the Iranian regime on Saturday warned commercial vessels to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Gulf through which approximately 20 percent of global oil supplies pass. The regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) likely was responsible for attacks on three commercial vessels near the Strait, including one that killed a crewman. Major shipping companies have suspended traffic through and near the Strait.
The Iranian regime also could activate the Houthis, its proxy militia in Yemen that in the past has fired missiles at Israel and attacked commercial vessels in the southern Red Sea and nearby waters of the Arabian Sea. Maersk, the Denmark-based shipping giant, today halted some of its Red Sea traffic as a precaution.
President Donald Trump declared after the eruption of the war that his goal was the ouster of Iran’s Shia fundamentalist regime, setting an extremely high bar for ending hostilities.
Crucially, the Iranian regime knows it is fighting for its very survival.
The US and Israel launched the war opportunistically, killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the notoriously hardline supreme leader since 1989 and several other top regime figures as they met in three separate locations in Tehran in broad daylight at the start of the Iranian workweek. The operation was the latest evidence of the remarkable depth of US and Israeli intelligence penetration of the regime, which is widely reviled by ordinary Iranians for its extreme brutality, acute economic mismanagement and imposition of rigid Islamic social restrictions.
But Khamenei was 86 and the regime has the succession process prepared, even if it is unclear who the next supreme leader will be. For now, the ruthless Ali Larijani, the regime’s top national security official, appears to be in charge.
More importantly, the IRGC has over 200,000 personnel in multiple branches and is better armed than the Iranian army. Its Basij auxiliary militia is even larger, and like the IRGC is deeply embedded in society and provides jobs and other benefits to members.
The US and Israeli militaries will work down their lengthy bombing target lists in coming days and weeks, undoubtedly destroying most IRGC and Iranian army weapons systems and related infrastructure. Not all Iranian missiles and missile-launchers will be destroyed on the ground but the IRGC has finite numbers of them, meaning the missile peril the region faces will ease, even if Iranian drone launches could continue for weeks or even months.
Ultimately, the US and Israel may prove unable to achieve regime change by air power alone.
Trump called on the Iranian people to rise up once the heaviest US and Israeli airstrikes end. But fighting for its life, the regime is certain to slaughter ordinary Iranians who attempt to demonstrate against it, just as it did in January when it killed at least 15,000 protesters.
Even if the regime cracks, opposition to it inside Iran and abroad is so disorganized that the country of 92 million could descend into chaos.
In short, the situation is entirely unpredictable.
Personnel throughout the region should shelter in place and steer well clear of US diplomatic facilities, oil and gas infrastructure, and military bases – all of which are prime Iranian missile and drone targets.
Unfortunately, extraction by charter flight is not an option at the moment for those who are stranded due to national closures of airspace.
Limited flights from limited countries may become available in coming days – those who are stranded and their colleagues outside the region continually should check for developments on this front while monitoring embassy messages about possible evacuation opportunities. Extraction by boat from northwestern Saudi Arabia, Israel and northern Beirut suburbs in Lebanon may become feasible in coming days, a situation that also should be monitored, although safe overland passage to the sea would have to be assured in such cases. Flights from Egypt, which thus far is outside the war zone, may be an option if Saudi airspace does not reopen on a limited basis.
No attempts should be made to travel to airports to wait for flights to become available.
Personnel in the Gulf Arab countries should curtail circulation to the utmost, remaining indoors to the extent possible. They should monitor the advice of local authorities and their embassies. High-rises are not ideal places to be, and those stuck in a multi-story hotel or apartment building should keep in mind that underground parking garages are relatively secure from drone attack but not immune and that stairways rather than elevators should be used in the event of drone attack or fire. Stocking up on food and other essentials is recommended in the smaller Gulf Arab countries.
Personnel in Israel should curtail circulation sharply, familiarize themselves with the nearest bomb shelters, and heed the air attack alert and other directions of authorities without exception. Personnel should keep well clear of the Lebanese border.
Personnel in Lebanon should remain in Christian suburbs north of Beirut and even there should curtail circulation. Central Beirut should be avoided for the time being.
Personnel in Jordan, where US military bases have been targeted by Iranian missiles and Iranian missiles and drones aimed at Israel constantly fly overhead, should shelter in place.
