The US and Israeli war against the Iranian regime is growing more disruptive and messier by the day.
Citing “serious safety risks,” the United States yesterday urged Americans to depart via commercial means from 14 countries: Israel; the Palestinian territories; Saudi Arabia; the United Arab Emirates, Qatar; Bahrain; Kuwait; Oman; Jordan; Lebanon; Syria; Iraq; Yemen and Iran.
The State Department separately ordered nonessential staff members and their families to evacuate the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and Iraq.
The moves came after the US Embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait were struck by Iranian drones, causing minor damage and no casualties.
With commercial flights to the Arabian Peninsula largely cut off since the outset of the war on Saturday, hundreds of thousands of tourists and business travelers have been stranded.
Dubai’s flagship carrier Emirates and its budget airline flydubai yesterday announced a limited flight schedule, and a small number of flights to Europe and Saudi Arabia reportedly departed. The international airport in Dubai announced, however, that departures remained unpredictable and travelers should not go to the airport unless contacted by their airline.
Flights remain suspended to Qatar, Bahrain and much of the rest of the Middle East.
Heavy US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran are continuing, with Iran in turn keeping up missile and drone fire at US military bases across the region and at Israel.
Iran also is continuing to launch drones at a limited number of high-rise buildings, civilian airports and oil and gas production facilities in the Gulf Arab countries with the aim of getting them to pressure Washington to halt the war.
While air defenses in the Gulf Arab monarchies have been performing well, there is mounting concern that stocks of interceptors will begin to run low in coming days, raising the prospect of drones increasingly getting through.
Iranian missiles and missile launchers are being hit on the ground by the US and Israel, and in any case there are finite numbers of them.
In coming days, Iranian missile attacks may start to become less frequent. But significant drone attacks could persist for some time, especially against the Gulf Arab countries, which are immediately across the water from Iran.
Multinationals have been hit.
Amazon’s cloud computing business said two of its facilities in the UAE were struck by drones and remained “significantly impaired” as of this morning. The company also said a drone had hit near one of its facilities in Bahrain. It said customers who use its Middle East facilities should “consider taking action now to backup data and potentially migrate your workloads” to facilities in other regions.
Iran is continuing air attacks on oil and gas facilities in the Gulf Arab countries, again with the aim of getting them to pressure the US to end the war. A fire erupted at Musaffah fuel tank terminal in Abu Dhabi after it was struck by a drone today. Earlier attacks on major facilities, including the massive Ras Tanura oil refinery in Saudi Arabia and the Ras Laffan natural gas complex in Qatar, forced production shutdowns.
The Gulf Arab countries have grown increasingly belligerent toward Iran in response to the widespread missile and drone attacks, but they fear provoking even heavier Iranian strikes, especially against their hydrocarbon industries.
The Iranian regime yesterday threatened to attack any ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Gulf through which about 20 percent of world oil supplies normally pass. At least three ships have been attacked so far.
The US military today insisted the Strait remains open but vessel traffic through it virtually has ceased.
Israel continues to suffer multiple daily Iranian missile and drone attacks, with the death toll at 10 and scores injured since the war began.
Israel since Sunday also has been under rocket and drone attack from Iran’s Lebanese Shia militia proxy Hizbollah, prompting widespread Israeli airstrikes against Hizbollah targets in southern and eastern Lebanon and in heavily Shia southern Beirut. Israel has moved some troops beyond the small positions it held just inside Lebanon, indicating the possibility of a ground war. At least 52 Lebanese have been killed and over 30,000 displaced so far.
The Lebanese government has declared Hizbollah’s current attacks on Israel illegal, largely in an attempt to ward off Israeli bombing of central Beirut and other areas of the country where Hizbollah is not present.
The Iranian regime also could activate the Houthis, its proxy militia in Yemen that in the past has fired missiles at Israel and attacked commercial vessels in the southern Red Sea and nearby waters of the Arabian Sea. Maersk, the Denmark-based shipping giant, yesterday halted some of its Red Sea traffic as a precaution.
President Donald Trump set an extremely high bar for ending the war when he declared on Saturday that his goal was the ouster of Iran’s Shia fundamentalist regime.
Yesterday he said the war could continue for weeks.
It is possible it will continue for months.
The US and Israel launched the war opportunistically, killing notoriously hardline Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several other top regime figures as they met in Tehran in broad daylight at the start of the Iranian workweek.
The regime is widely reviled by ordinary Iranians for its extreme brutality, acute economic mismanagement and imposition of rigid Islamic social restrictions.
But its leadership seems to have regrouped for now under Ali Larijani, its top national security official.
More importantly, the regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has over 200,000 personnel in multiple specialized branches and is better armed than the Iranian army.
The IRGC’s Basij auxiliary militia is even larger, and like the IRGC is deeply embedded in society and provides jobs and other benefits to members.
Trump called on the Iranian people to rise up once the heaviest US and Israeli airstrikes end. But fighting for its life, the regime is certain to slaughter ordinary Iranians who attempt demonstrate against it, just as it did in January when it killed at least 15,000 protesters.
Even if the regime cracks, opposition to it inside Iran and abroad is so disorganized that the country of 92 million could descend into chaos.
In short, the situation is entirely unpredictable.
Personnel throughout the region should shelter in place and steer well clear of US diplomatic facilities, oil and gas infrastructure, and military bases – all of which are prime Iranian missile and drone targets.
Limited flights from limited countries may be available in coming days – those who are stranded and their colleagues outside the region continually should check with airlines while monitoring embassy messages about possible evacuation opportunities. Extraction by boat from northwestern Saudi Arabia, Israel and northern Beirut suburbs in Lebanon may become feasible in coming days, a situation that also should be monitored, although safe overland passage to the sea would have to be assured in such cases. Flights from Egypt, which thus far is outside the war zone, may be an option.
No attempts should be made to travel to airports to wait for flights to become available.
Personnel in the Gulf Arab countries should curtail circulation to the utmost, remaining indoors to the extent possible. They should monitor the advice of local authorities and their embassies. High-rises are not ideal places to be, and those stuck in a multi-story hotel or apartment building should keep in mind that underground parking garages are relatively secure from drone attack but not immune and that stairways rather than elevators should be used in the event of drone attack or fire. Stocking up on food and other essentials is recommended in the smaller Gulf Arab countries.
Personnel in Israel should curtail circulation sharply, familiarize themselves with the nearest bomb shelters, and heed air attack alert and other directions of authorities without exception. Personnel should keep well clear of the Lebanese border.
Personnel in Lebanon should remain in Christian suburbs north of Beirut and even there should curtail circulation. Central Beirut should be avoided for the time being.
Personnel in Jordan, where US military bases have been targeted by Iranian missiles and Iranian missiles and drones aimed at Israel constantly fly overhead, should shelter in place.
