The best that can be hoped for is that Iran and the United States will extend their ceasefire that expires Wednesday.
President Donald Trump said a US negotiating team would arrive in Pakistan this evening for negotiations with Iranian regime representatives. But the Iranian regime has refused to confirm that talks will take place.
Vice President JD Vance, who led the US team in initial negotiations in Pakistan on 11 April that broke down after 21 hours, reportedly had not left the US as of this morning.
Complicating matters, the US and Iranian regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) exchanged strikes on commercial vessels over the weekend.
The US Navy yesterday attacked and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship that tried to skirt the US blockade of Iranian ports that Trump imposed on 13 April.
On Saturday, the IRGC attacked two Indian-flagged vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, the bottleneck at the mouth of the Gulf through which 20 percent of global oil supplies and other important commodities pass in normal times.
The two vessels were hit after the Iranian regime announced that it was reimposing its blockade of the Strait until the US lifted its blockade of Iranian ports.
The regime on Friday had announced that it was lifting its blockade, which it introduced when the US and Israel launched their bombing campaign against it on 28 February.
It seems Trump believed he had made a major concession by compelling Israel on Wednesday to agree to a 10-day ceasefire in its war in Lebanon against IRGC-proxy Hizbollah and that he sought to retain leverage by keeping the US blockade of Iranian ports in place.
The Iranian regime and Trump in particular have indicated a strong interest in negotiating an end to the war.
But major differences remain over the Iranian regime’s nuclear program, the chief bone of contention.
The immediate priority is extending the two-week ceasefire that the two sides implemented on 8 April.
Weeks or months of negotiations on a comprehensive agreement to end the war could follow, with no guarantee of success.
It is important to note that the Iranian regime has a high tolerance for pain and is well practiced at stringing out and muddying negotiations with the US and other Western countries.
A return to widespread hostilities remains possible.
This service is continuing to advise against all travel to the Arabian Peninsula south of Turkey. Those on the ground should consider departing by their own means.
Most airlines from outside the region probably will not resume flights without certainty that the 8 April truce will be extended indefinitely.
Until it is clear that Iranian drone and missile attacks have been suspended completely, personnel in the Gulf Arab countries should curtail circulation, remaining indoors to the extent possible. When they must go out, they should steer well clear of US diplomatic facilities, military bases and oil and gas infrastructure – all of which are prime Iranian missile and drone targets. They should monitor the advice of local authorities and their embassies. High-rises are not ideal places to be, and those in a multi-story hotel or apartment building should keep in mind that underground parking garages are relatively secure from drone attack but not immune and that stairways rather than elevators should be used in the event of drone attack or fire. During air attack alerts, windows should be given wide berth.
The Gulf Arab countries routinely are arresting people, including Westerners, who share cell phone videos of or social media posts about local military assets and Iranian missile and drone impacts.
Even seemingly innocent sharing of such materials should be avoided.
The ceasefire between Israel and Hizbollah essentially is holding.
Out of caution, personnel who must be in Israel should continue to curtail circulation, familiarize themselves with the nearest bomb shelters, and heed air attack alerts and directions of authorities without exception. Personnel should keep well clear of the Lebanese border.
Personnel in Lebanon should remain in Christian suburbs north of Beirut and even there should curtail circulation. They should avoid central Beirut entirely.
Lebanon’s Middle East Airlines has operated some flights to and from Beirut’s international airport, which is situated in the Hizbollah-dominated southern suburbs of the city. But the airport and roads to it cannot be considered safe given very recent heavy Israeli airstrikes in the immediate vicinity.
In past wars, foreigners evacuated Lebanon by boat from the Christian suburbs north of Beirut, an option feasible only if a place on a professionally operated boat and secure transportation to water’s edge is pre-arranged.
Personnel in Jordan, where in recent weeks US military bases were targeted by Iranian missiles and Iranian missiles and drones aimed at Israel constantly flew overhead, should continue to curtail circulation. The country should not be visited and those on the ground should depart by their own means.
