Hope for a negotiated end to the Iran-US war has faded since President Donald Trump on Saturday scrapped a visit by his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan, which Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi visited twice over the weekend.
Expectations already were low after Vice President JD Vance and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, senior figures who led initial talks on 11 April that broke down after 21 hours, failed to return to Pakistan as expected last week.
Pakistan today said it continues to work behind-the-scenes on bridging proposals.
The Iranian regime is offering to formalize a ceasefire and fully reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz while putting off negotiations over the Iranian nuclear program, according to Iranian sources.
But having declared that the regime will not be allowed to develop nuclear bombs, Trump is unlikely to agree to leave the matter for later.
The upshot is that there is no end in sight to the dueling blockades in which Iran is choking the Strait, through which 20 percent of global oil supplies pass and other important commodities pass in normal times, and the US Navy is enforcing a ban on calls to Iranian ports by tracking ships and intercepting them outside the Gulf.
While neither side seeks a return to full-scale war, events could spin out of control.
Gulf Arab countries face the possibility of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) resuming missile and drone attacks against them.
This service continues to recommend that all travel to the Arabian Peninsula south of Turkey be suspended. Those on the ground should consider departing by their own means.
Personnel who must be in the Gulf Arab countries should curtail circulation. They should steer well clear of US diplomatic facilities, military bases and oil and gas infrastructure – all of which were prime Iranian missile and drone targets from 28 February until a ceasefire went into effect on 8 April. They should monitor the advice of local authorities and their embassies. High-rises are not ideal places to be, and those in a multi-story hotel or apartment building should keep in mind that underground parking garages are relatively secure from drone attack but not immune and that stairways rather than elevators should be used in the event of drone attack or fire. In the event of an air attack alert, windows should be given wide berth.
The Gulf Arab countries routinely are arresting people, including Westerners, who share cell phone videos of or social media posts about local military assets and Iranian missile and drone impacts.
Even seemingly innocent sharing of such materials should be avoided.
Israel and the Lebanese government on Thursday extended their ceasefire agreement for three weeks, keeping in place the lull in fighting between Israeli forces and the Lebanese Shia militia Hizbollah, an Iranian proxy.
That fighting, however, ticked up over the weekend.
Full-scale hostilities between Israel and Hizbollah almost certainly would re-erupt if the US-Iran ceasefire collapses.
Personnel who must be in Israel should continue to curtail circulation, familiarize themselves with the nearest bomb shelters, and heed air attack alerts and directions of authorities without exception. Personnel should keep well clear of the Lebanese border.
Personnel in Lebanon should remain in Christian suburbs north of Beirut and even there should curtail circulation. They should avoid central Beirut entirely.
Lebanon’s Middle East Airlines has operated some flights to and from Beirut’s international airport, which is situated in the Hizbollah-dominated southern suburbs of the city. But the airport and roads to it cannot be considered safe given recent heavy Israeli airstrikes in the immediate vicinity.
In past wars, foreigners evacuated Lebanon by boat from the Christian suburbs north of Beirut, an option feasible only if a place on a professionally operated boat and secure transportation to water’s edge is pre-arranged.
Personnel in Jordan, where US military bases were targeted by Iranian missiles and Iranian missiles and drones aimed at Israel constantly flew overhead from 28 February to 8 April, should continue to curtail circulation. The country should not be visited and those on the ground should depart by their own means.
