Iran and the United States yesterday agreed to end four consecutive days of limited attacks and return to negotiations for a comprehensive settlement of their war.
The talks, at the technical level, reportedly are to resume tomorrow.
The tit-for-tat attacks ended with Iran defiant, again asserting sole “management” of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Gulf through which 20 percent of global oil supplies and other important commodities normally pass.
The attacks began Thursday when the Iranian regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) staged a drone strike on a Singapore-flagged container ship operated by Taiwan’s Evergreen as it sailed near the Omani side of the Strait.
There were no injuries or significant damage, and the vessel soon continued its journey.
The symbolic attack occurred hours after Iran warned that the only “safe” route for passing through the Strait was along its coast.
On Friday, the US responded with airstrikes against drone and missile sites and radar installations along the Iranian shore of the Strait.
The IRGC then launched a limited number of drones and missiles, saying it targeted US forces at Ali al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait and US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain.
In the Bahraini capital Manama, a top-floor apartment in a high-rise near the international airport, some distance from US Fifth Fleet headquarters, was badly damaged. No injuries were reported.
Kuwait said it intercepted incoming missiles and that no one was hurt.
The IRGC also staged a calibrated drone attack on a Panamanian-flagged tanker carrying crude oil for the state-run energy company of Qatar. The attack occurred near the Omani coast of the Strait and caused minimal damage.
The US then carried another round of airstrikes on military targets near the Iranian shore of the Strait.
The round of attacks was the first since President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on 17 June signed a memorandum of understanding for ending the war.
The MOU calls for a permanent cessation of hostilities and the immediate reopening of the Strait to oil tankers and other commercial vessels.
The IRGC effectively had blocked the Strait since the US and Israel began bombing Iran on 28 February.
The Iranian regime is now insisting that ships transiting the Strait pass near its shore and register with it.
It has established an insurance company for the Strait, clearing the way for collection of what would amount to extortion payments.
The IRGC drone attacks on the container ship and oil tanker were prompted by rising numbers of ships transiting the Strait last week along the Omani coast at the recommendation of the United Nation’s International Maritime Organization.
The Iranian regime was emboldened by outlasting 38 days of devastating US and Israeli bombing.
Irredeemably fanatical, it is bound to continue staging provocations while negotiating with the US for a comprehensive settlement ending the war.
Under the MOU, the negotiating period is 60 days and can be extended.
Most likely Iran and the US never will come to terms on immensely complicated issues like restricting the Iranian nuclear program and lifting US sanctions against Iran.
That means uncertainly is likely to hang over the Gulf region indefinitely.
Fortunately, neither Iran nor the US has an interest in returning to full-scale war.
There would be no benefit to Trump in resuming the heavy bombing of Iran that caused global fuel prices to soar.
The Iranian regime under the MOU is free to export its oil on world markets for the first time since 2018 and is recovering some of its assets frozen in Qatar and other countries, giving it incentive to continue negotiating with the US.
Nothing can be taken for granted, however.
The Iranian regime and Trump administration are bound to continue testing each other at the negotiating table and in the Strait. More exchanges of fire between the IRGC and US military seem certain.
Developments could spin out of control, leading to the resumption of heavier combat that would include renewed IRGC missile and drone attacks on the Gulf Arab countries, Jordan and Israel.
Personnel may resume routine travel to the Arabian Peninsula south of Turkey with the exceptions of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Personnel traveling to the Gulf Arab countries, Jordan and Israel should monitor Iran-related tensions constantly. They and their employers should be cognizant that commercial flights could be disrupted if the US-Iran ceasefire breaks down and that employers would bear the responsibility of repatriating stranded personnel.
Personnel in Israel should remain well clear of the border with Lebanon, where a fragile truce is in place between Israeli troops and the local Shia militia Hizbollah, an Iranian proxy. They should familiarize themselves with the nearest bomb shelters and be prepared to heed air attack alerts and related instructions from authorities.
