The Iranian regime is signaling defiance and resolve with its week-long, massive funeral for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was assassinated along with other key clerical and security figures in an airstrike in the opening minutes of the war on 28 February.
But the ceremonies, which conclude on Thursday, have exposed serious cracks in the regime.
Khamenei’s son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not appeared at any of the public events so far unlike three of his brothers.
He was gravely disfigured in the airstrike that killed his father and the regime has released neither a photo of him nor recording of his voice since he became supreme leader on 8 March.
It increasingly seems that Mojtaba will not appear publicly for some time, if ever.
That raises the question of how much power he exercises.
He is known to be close to the regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has fallen even further under the influence of hardliners following the killing of many of its commanders in airstrikes.
The IRGC now is widely thought to be pushing clerical leaders into a symbolic role, tilting Iran toward a form of military dictatorship.
The IRGC is larger than the national army and has its own ground troops, navy, air force, intelligence service and commando units. It has a vast business empire.
Its leadership is large. At the grassroots, it sponsors youth groups and oversees the vast Basij paramilitary militia.
In short, the IRGC is deeply embedded in society.
Religious fanaticism and visceral anti-Americanism are bound to continue driving the IRGC, which has been energized by outlasting 38 days of devastating bombing by the United States and Israel, the regime’s vastly more powerful chief ideological foes.
But ultra-hardliners inside and outside the IRGC openly and routinely have criticized the 8 April preliminary ceasefire with the US and 17 June memorandum of understanding for ending the war signed separately by President Donald Trump Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
At the same time, the vast majority of ordinary Iranians revile the regime.
The ban on women exposing their hair in public has been rolled back since the war began, signaling possibly flexibility on widely hated Islamic social restrictions.
But the regime has no answer for catastrophic economic problems exacerbated by the war.
The regime cares nothing for ordinary Iranians, who it cold bloodedly shot by the thousands in January during widespread protests over gruesome living conditions.
In desperation, the public again may take to the streets.
There is no organized opposition in Iran and Iranian exiles are fractious, but it is not inconceivable that anti-regime protests could reach a tipping point.
As odious as the regime is, its collapse could lead to chaos in Iran, a country of 92 million, with worrisome effects for the entire region.
At present, neither Iran nor the US has an interest in returning to full-scale war.
There would be no benefit to Trump in resuming the bombing, which had become aimless while causing him domestic political problems due to higher gasoline prices.
The Iranian regime under the MOU is free to export its oil on world markets for the first time since 2018 and is recovering some of its assets frozen in Qatar and other countries, giving it incentive to continue negotiating with the US.
Nothing can be taken for granted, however.
In the worst case, developments could spin out of control, leading to the resumption of heavy combat that would include major IRGC missile and drone attacks on the Gulf Arab countries, Jordan and Israel.
Personnel may resume routine travel to the Arabian Peninsula south of Turkey with the exceptions of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Personnel traveling to the Gulf Arab countries, Jordan and Israel should monitor Iran-related tensions constantly. They and their employers should be cognizant that commercial flights could be disrupted if the US-Iran ceasefire breaks down and that employers would bear the responsibility of repatriating stranded personnel.
Personnel in Israel should remain well clear of the border with Lebanon, where a fragile truce is in place between Israeli troops and the local Shia militia Hizbollah, an Iranian proxy. They should familiarize themselves with the nearest bomb shelters and be prepared to heed air attack alerts and related instructions from authorities.
