The Iranian regime is taking advantage of President Donald Trump’s clear desire to end the war.
The two sides continue to wrangle over the contents of a one-page memorandum that would conclude hostilities and the framework for negotiations that would follow.
Trump yesterday dismissed out of hand the regime’s latest proposal, which was delivered to Pakistani mediators at least three days later than expected.
Details of the Trump administration’s demand for sweeping rollbacks of the Iranian nuclear program are immensely complicated, and the regime is deeply reluctant to concede anything on that front.
Trump constantly has threatened to resume the heavy bombing of regime targets that ended when a ceasefire was implemented on 8 April.
But it is not clear what more bombing would achieve and Trump frequently has said the war is all but over.
The regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has gained leverage since the bombing began on 28 February by choking the Strait of Hormuz, the narrows at the mouth of the Gulf through which 20 percent of global oil supplies and other important commodities normally pass. Fuel prices have surged around the world, including in the United States.
In response, the US Navy since 13 April effectively has blockaded Iran by tracking ships that make port calls and intercepting them outside the Gulf. Iran, which already was under acute economic pressure, has been unable to export oil as a result.
The ceasefire was rattled last week when the IRGC and US military exchanged fire in the Strait and the IRGC attacked several commercial vessels and the United Arab Emirates, a US ally.
Rather than respond forcefully, Trump backed off his newly announced initiative to have the US military guide and if necessary protect stranded commercial ships exiting the Gulf through the Strait.
Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, which host major US military contingents, all responded to relatively minor Iranian drone incursions over the weekend. Washington so far has played down that blatant needling by the IRGC.
The Shia fundamentalist Iranian regime is apocalyptic in outlook and is engaged in what it considers an existential war against the US and Israel, its chief ideological foes. It is well practiced in deception and delay in dialogue with the West.
The current standoff could continue for weeks, with the possibility that developments will spin out of control, leading to the re-eruption of major fire across the Gulf.
This service continues to recommend that all travel to the Arabian Peninsula south of Turkey be suspended. Those on the ground should consider departing by their own means.
Personnel who must be in the Gulf Arab countries should curtail circulation. They should steer well clear of US diplomatic facilities, military bases and oil and gas infrastructure – all of which were prime Iranian missile and drone targets from 28 February until the ceasefire went into effect on 8 April. They should monitor the advice of local authorities and their embassies. High-rises are not ideal places to be, and those in a multi-story hotel or apartment building should keep in mind that underground parking garages are relatively secure from drone attack but not immune and that stairways rather than elevators should be used in the event of drone attack or fire. In the event of an air attack alert, windows should be given wide berth.
The Gulf Arab countries routinely are arresting people, including Westerners, who share cell phone videos of or social media posts about local military assets and Iranian missile and drone impacts.
Even seemingly innocent sharing of such materials should be avoided.
Israel and the Lebanese government on 23 April extended their ceasefire agreement for three weeks, keeping in place the lull in fighting between Israeli forces and the Lebanese Shia militia Hizbollah, an Iranian proxy.
That fighting has rekindled in the past two weeks, with Israel last Wednesday staging an airstrike in Beirut for the first time since the ceasefire went into effect on 16 April.
Full-scale hostilities between Israel and Hizbollah almost certainly would re-erupt if the US-Iran ceasefire collapses.
Personnel who must be in Israel should continue to curtail circulation, familiarize themselves with the nearest bomb shelters, and heed air attack alerts and directions of authorities without exception. Personnel should keep well clear of the Lebanese border.
Personnel who must be in Lebanon should remain in Christian suburbs north of Beirut and even there should curtail circulation. They should avoid central Beirut entirely.
Lebanon’s Middle East Airlines has operated some flights to and from Beirut’s international airport, which is situated in the Hizbollah-dominated southern suburbs of the city. But the airport and roads to it cannot be considered safe given recent heavy Israeli airstrikes in the immediate vicinity.
In past wars, foreigners evacuated Lebanon by boat from the Christian suburbs north of Beirut, an option feasible only if a place on a professionally operated boat and secure transportation to water’s edge is pre-arranged.
Personnel in Jordan, where US military bases were targeted by Iranian missiles and Iranian missiles and drones aimed at Israel constantly flew overhead from 28 February to 8 April, should continue to curtail circulation. The country should not be visited and those on the ground should depart by their own means.
