The Iranian regime has continued to hold its fire following Monday’s US airstrikes, allowing slow-moving peace negotiations to continue.
The regime said the Trump administration violated the 8 April ceasefire between the two countries and declared the right to retaliate.
But it has announced no military responses.
At least four Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members were killed when the US military sank two boats that were laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and then carried out airstrikes against launchers that fired missiles at American warplanes.
The IRGC claimed it shot down a US drone but provided no evidence.
The US labeled the strikes as defensive, indicating they were one-off provided the IRGC does not respond.
The exchange of fire was the most serious in weeks.
While talking tough, President Donald Trump repeatedly has indicated a desire to end the war in relatively short order.
Although badly battered by US and Israeli bombing that began on 28 February, the Shia fundamentalist regime is apocalyptic in nature and believes it is engaged in an existential war with the US and Israel, its chief ideological enemies. It has a long history of stringing along the US and other Western countries in negotiations.
By choking the Strait with a limited number of missiles, armed speedboats, sea mines and cheap drones, the regime has gained unprecedented leverage over the 20 percent of global oil supplies that normally pass through the strategic waterway.
Through intermediaries, the Trump administration and the regime reportedly are making progress in negotiating a simple halt to the war and reopening of the Strait.
The immensely complicated issues of curbing the Iranian nuclear program and lifting US sanctions against Iran would be left for talks that would take place over 60 days or so.
It is distinctly possible that the two sides will fail to reach a comprehensive agreement.
At some point, the ceasefire could break down completely, with the IRGC renewing missile and drone attacks on the Gulf Arab countries and Israel.
This service continues to recommend that all travel to the Arabian Peninsula south of Turkey be suspended. Those on the ground should consider departing by their own means.
Personnel who must be in the Gulf Arab countries should be cognizant that commercial flights would be disrupted again if the US-Iran ceasefire breaks down and full-scale hostilities re-erupt. They should curtail circulation and steer well clear of US diplomatic facilities, military bases and oil and gas infrastructure – all of which were prime Iranian missile and drone targets from 28 February to 8 April. They should monitor the advice of local authorities and their embassies. High-rises are not ideal places to be, and those in a multi-story hotel or apartment building should keep in mind that underground parking garages are relatively secure from drone attack but not immune and that stairways rather than elevators should be used in the event of drone attack or fire. In the event of an air attack alert, windows should be given wide berth.
The Gulf Arab countries routinely are arresting people, including Westerners, who share cell phone videos of or social media posts about local military assets and Iranian missile and drone impacts.
Even seemingly innocent sharing of such materials should be avoided.
Israel since yesterday has been staging its heaviest airstrikes in weeks in southern and eastern Lebanon against the Shia militia Hizbollah, an Iranian proxy. It also is pushing ground troops deeper into southern Lebanon, although the scope of that operation is unclear.
Israel escalated in response to an increase in Hizbollah drone strikes on Israeli troops in southern Lebanon and against Israeli communities near the Lebanese border.
Israel and the Lebanese government on 15 May extended their ceasefire agreement for 45 more days, but that has failed to halt fighting between Israeli forces and Hizbollah that began on 2 March, three days after Israel and the US commenced heavy bombing of Iran.
Full-scale hostilities between Israel and Hizbollah almost certainly would re-erupt if the US-Iran ceasefire collapses, including Israeli bombing of religiously mixed central Beirut.
Personnel who must be in Israel should continue to curtail circulation, familiarize themselves with the nearest bomb shelters, and heed air attack alerts and directions of authorities without exception. Personnel should keep well clear of the Lebanese border.
Personnel who must be in Lebanon should remain in Christian suburbs north of Beirut and even there should curtail circulation. They should avoid central Beirut entirely.
Lebanon’s Middle East Airlines has operated some flights to and from Beirut’s international airport, which is situated in the Hizbollah-dominated southern suburbs of the city. But the airport and roads to it cannot be considered safe given recent heavy Israeli airstrikes in the immediate vicinity.
In past wars, foreigners evacuated Lebanon by boat from the Christian suburbs north of Beirut, an option feasible only if a place on a professionally operated boat and secure transportation to water’s edge is pre-arranged.
Personnel in Jordan, where US military bases were targeted by Iranian missiles and drones aimed at Israel constantly flew overhead from 28 February to 8 April, should continue to curtail circulation. The country should not be visited and those on the ground should depart by their own means.
