US and Iranian forces skirmished in and near the Strait of Hormuz today as President Donald Trump launched an initiative to guide stranded commercial ships through the waterway.
The Iranian regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) staged drone attacks on a handful of commercial vessels, including a South Korean cargo ship and an Emirati oil tanker.
US jetfighters were in the skies and US Navy guided-missile destroyers sailed through the Strait.
US forces sank six IRGC speedboats that attempted to interfere with commercial traffic.
The US military said it escorted two commercial ships through the Strait.
It earlier described Trump’s initiative as an effort to help vessels trapped in the Gulf navigate past Iranian interference in the Strait and to provide them with a shield of American jetfighters and naval vessels, rather than a direct escort.
Trump announced the initiative yesterday and said any interference by the IRGC would be dealt with “forcefully.”
The Iranian regime responded by declaring that any commercial ship passing through the Strait without its permission or any an US Navy ship in the Strait would be “attacked.”
Expanding the conflict, the IRGC today staged a drone attack that injured at least three Indian laborers in an oil-industry zone in Fujairah, an Emirati port on the Strait of Hormuz just outside the Gulf. The strike was a clear warning that an oil pipeline that enables Emirati authorities to export crude without sending tankers through the Strait could be targeted.
There were air attack alerts in Dubai today, with booms heard above the city indicating that drones or missiles had been intercepted.
The skirmishing is the first since the US and Iran implemented a ceasefire on 8 April.
Neither party has an interest in returning to full-scale war.
But it is all too easy to envision encounters like those today causing events to spin out of control, leading the IRGC to renew regular missile and drone attacks on the Gulf Arab countries and Israel.
The IRGC since the war began on 28 February has been choking the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Gulf through which 20 percent of global oil supplies pass in normal times.
In response, the US Navy since 13 April effectively has blockaded Iran by tracking ships that make port calls and intercepting them outside the Gulf.
The gambit Trump launched today clearly was aimed at undercutting Iran’s effective control over the Strait. But it is difficult to see major shipping companies, their insurers and cargo owners sending their vessels through the Strait without a formal end to the war.
The immediate concern is whether today’s exchanges of fire will escalate.
This service continues to recommend that all travel to the Arabian Peninsula south of Turkey be suspended. Those on the ground should consider departing by their own means.
Personnel who must be in the Gulf Arab countries should curtail circulation. They should steer well clear of US diplomatic facilities, military bases and oil and gas infrastructure – all of which were prime Iranian missile and drone targets from 28 February until the ceasefire went into effect on 8 April. They should monitor the advice of local authorities and their embassies. High-rises are not ideal places to be, and those in a multi-story hotel or apartment building should keep in mind that underground parking garages are relatively secure from drone attack but not immune and that stairways rather than elevators should be used in the event of drone attack or fire. In the event of an air attack alert, windows should be given wide berth.
The Gulf Arab countries routinely are arresting people, including Westerners, who share cell phone videos of or social media posts about local military assets and Iranian missile and drone impacts.
Even seemingly innocent sharing of such materials should be avoided.
Israel and the Lebanese government on 23 April extended their ceasefire agreement for three weeks, keeping in place the lull in fighting between Israeli forces and the Lebanese Shia militia Hizbollah, an Iranian proxy.
That fighting has ticked up in the past 10 days although Israel has not resumed bombing Beirut.
Full-scale hostilities between Israel and Hizbollah almost certainly would re-erupt if the US-Iran ceasefire collapses.
Personnel who must be in Israel should continue to curtail circulation, familiarize themselves with the nearest bomb shelters, and heed air attack alerts and directions of authorities without exception. Personnel should keep well clear of the Lebanese border.
Personnel who must be in Lebanon should remain in Christian suburbs north of Beirut and even there should curtail circulation. They should avoid central Beirut entirely.
Lebanon’s Middle East Airlines has operated some flights to and from Beirut’s international airport, which is situated in the Hizbollah-dominated southern suburbs of the city. But the airport and roads to it cannot be considered safe given recent heavy Israeli airstrikes in the immediate vicinity.
In past wars, foreigners evacuated Lebanon by boat from the Christian suburbs north of Beirut, an option feasible only if a place on a professionally operated boat and secure transportation to water’s edge is pre-arranged.
Personnel in Jordan, where US military bases were targeted by Iranian missiles and Iranian missiles and drones aimed at Israel constantly flew overhead from 28 February to 8 April, should continue to curtail circulation. The country should not be visited and those on the ground should depart by their own means.
