President Donald Trump yesterday announced an initiative to guide stranded commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the Iranian regime to threaten to attack any vessel that attempts to pass through the waterway without its permission.
Trump said the initiative would begin today and that interference by the regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would be dealt with “forcefully.”
He did not provide details.
The US military said it would coordinate safe passage by stranded ships. It did not say it would escort them but said warships and jetfighters would provide support.
The Iranian regime said any US Navy ship approaching or entering the Strait would be “attacked.”
The US military denied a regime claim today that it had struck an American naval vessel with two missiles, saying no such attacks had been attempted.
The United Arab Emirates today accused the IRGC of staging a drone attack on a tanker of its state oil company trying transit the Strait. There was no information about casualties or damage.
A ceasefire between the US and Iran has been in place since 8 April, and neither has an interest in returning to full-scale war.
With negotiations for ending the conflict at an impasse, dueling blockades are looming large.
The regime since the war began on 28 February has been choking the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Gulf through which 20 percent of global oil supplies pass in normal times.
In response, the US Navy since 13 April effectively has blockaded Iran by tracking ships that make port calls and intercepting them outside the Gulf.
The gambit Trump announced yesterday clearly was aimed at undercutting Iran’s effective control over the Strait.
But it could lead an exchange of fire that could spark wider hostilities, including renewed US airstrikes on Iran and IRGC missile and drone attacks on the Gulf Arab countries and Israel.
Short of that scenario, the test of wills between Trump and the Iranian regime will continue.
Iran faces an economic catastrophe if it cannot resume oil exports in the near future. But its rulers are religious fanatics engaged in an existential war against their chief ideological foe, meaning they have an enormous capacity to absorb pain.
Trump, who is sensitive to elevated gasoline prices and market volatility in the US, has more practical concerns.
This service continues to recommend that all travel to the Arabian Peninsula south of Turkey be suspended. Those on the ground should consider departing by their own means.
Personnel who must be in the Gulf Arab countries should curtail circulation. They should steer well clear of US diplomatic facilities, military bases and oil and gas infrastructure – all of which were prime Iranian missile and drone targets from 28 February until the ceasefire went into effect on 8 April. They should monitor the advice of local authorities and their embassies. High-rises are not ideal places to be, and those in a multi-story hotel or apartment building should keep in mind that underground parking garages are relatively secure from drone attack but not immune and that stairways rather than elevators should be used in the event of drone attack or fire. In the event of an air attack alert, windows should be given wide berth.
The Gulf Arab countries routinely are arresting people, including Westerners, who share cell phone videos of or social media posts about local military assets and Iranian missile and drone impacts.
Even seemingly innocent sharing of such materials should be avoided.
Israel and the Lebanese government on 23 April extended their ceasefire agreement for three weeks, keeping in place the lull in fighting between Israeli forces and the Lebanese Shia militia Hizbollah, an Iranian proxy.
That fighting has ticked up in the past 10 days although Israel has not resumed bombing Beirut.
Full-scale hostilities between Israel and Hizbollah almost certainly would re-erupt if the US-Iran ceasefire collapses.
Personnel who must be in Israel should continue to curtail circulation, familiarize themselves with the nearest bomb shelters, and heed air attack alerts and directions of authorities without exception. Personnel should keep well clear of the Lebanese border.
Personnel who must be in Lebanon should remain in Christian suburbs north of Beirut and even there should curtail circulation. They should avoid central Beirut entirely.
Lebanon’s Middle East Airlines has operated some flights to and from Beirut’s international airport, which is situated in the Hizbollah-dominated southern suburbs of the city. But the airport and roads to it cannot be considered safe given recent heavy Israeli airstrikes in the immediate vicinity.
In past wars, foreigners evacuated Lebanon by boat from the Christian suburbs north of Beirut, an option feasible only if a place on a professionally operated boat and secure transportation to water’s edge is pre-arranged.
Personnel in Jordan, where US military bases were targeted by Iranian missiles and Iranian missiles and drones aimed at Israel constantly flew overhead from 28 February to 8 April, should continue to curtail circulation. The country should not be visited and those on the ground should depart by their own means.
