Unable to prevent incessant Israeli airstrikes, Iran was reported today to be reaching out to the United States and Israel through Arab intermediaries.
Its message is said to be that it will return to negotiations over its nuclear program provided the US does not join Israel in attacking it.
Israel, however, almost certainly will not cease attacks until it has achieved its war aim of destroying Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities, some of which are buried deep under mountains.
That could take days more of bombing, and perhaps longer.
Battered and humiliated, the Iranian regime is desperate for breathing room and is angling for the Trump administration to lean on Israel to provide it.
Whether the Iranian regime actually would agree to scrap nuclear enrichment remains to be seen. It was unwilling to do so in recent negotiations with the US and has a long history of seemingly making concessions and dragging its feet as tactics.
Soon after Israel initiated hostilities in the early hours of Friday, it established complete dominance of Iranian skies, building on its destruction of much of the Iranian air defense network in a limited attack on 26 October.
Israeli jetfighters, drones and missiles repeatedly have targeted Iranian nuclear sites, military and intelligence facilities, and missile depots and launchers.
Israel over the weekend struck fuel depots and refineries in an apparent warning that it could target Iran’s crucial crude oil export sector.
Israel killed over 20 top commanders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and military in its initial attacks as well as leading nuclear scientists and has continued to target key security figures for assassination, undermining Iranian war leadership.
Iran reports at least 224 people killed and over 1,200 injured since Friday, many of them civilians.
Yet Israel is believed to be some way from destroying Iran’s nuclear program, which it views as an existential threat.
It has struck two main nuclear sites in Natanz and Isfahan along with some smaller ones, but only has managed to collapse entrances and airshafts to enrichment facilities deep underground, most notably at the major Fordow complex.
Senior Israeli officials have said the air campaign could continue for 14 days or more.
Iran has fired 350 ballistic missiles at Israel so far, with most intercepted, partly with help from the US military.
But over 20 Israeli civilians have been killed and hundreds injured, many of them in Israel’s densely populated coastal strip.
Of the eight fatalities last night, two were in a fortified room that splintered in a direct hit to an apartment building.
Israeli authorities responded by declaring that such reinforced rooms, which Israeli residences are required to have, remain the best bet during air attacks.
The closed US Consulate in Tel Aviv suffered minor damage in a missile attack early today.
By country, here are some of the many moving parts of the crisis and our advice:
Israel –Commercial air traffic was cut off suddenly on Friday. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu advised Israelis that they would face long stints in bomb shelters as the war unfolds. Concerned about IRGC-orchestrated terrorism, Israel closed its embassies and advised its citizens abroad to refrain from displaying Israeli or Jewish symbols.
Germany, Poland, Taiwan and other countries have organized buses to take their citizens to Jordan, where flights are available. The US is among the countries that have made no moves to facilitate evacuations of their citizens.
Personnel in Israel should monitor developments constantly, follow instructions from authorities and familiarize themselves with the nearest bomb shelters. They should avoid points north of Haifa due to the possibility of the Iran-allied Lebanese Shia militant complex Hizbollah renewing rocket attacks. The West Bank should be avoided due to the ongoing upsurge in violence by Palestinian extremists, radical Jewish settlers and the Israeli military.
Iran – this service has long advised against travel to Iran.
Jordan – Jordanian authorities have reported shooting down some Iranian missiles and drones since Friday, saying it was concerned they would have fallen short of Israel and hit Jordanian territory. US warplanes reportedly participated in the downings. King Abdullah II is in a difficult position, wary of both appearing pro-Israel in the eyes of the majority of Jordanians who are of Palestinian origin and alienating the US, his essential strategic patron, by appearing anti-Israel.
Personnel should suspend travel to Jordan. Those who must be on the ground should curtail circulation to the utmost and monitor developments constantly. They should stick to West Amman and other affluent areas. Due to terrorism risks, tourist attractions, churches, shopping malls, eating and drinking establishments and other Western hangouts should be avoided. Personnel ideally should get around by chauffeur-driven company vehicle. Those lacking that option should use only hotel vehicles or established taxi services. Personnel regularly should update colleagues outside the country on their well-being and concerns. They absolutely should not discuss Israel, religion, US foreign policy or other sensitive topics with locals, even trusted colleagues.
Lebanon – Hizbollah, badly battered by Israel in 14 months of conflict that ended with a truce in November, has denounced Israel’s attack on Iran but has not threaten to renew rocket attacks on Israel. Renewal of those attacks cannot be ruled out, however, and Israel undoubtedly would respond with heavy bombing of Hizbollah targets in southern and eastern Lebanon and in south Beirut, where the country’s only international airport is located.
This service continues to advise against travel to Lebanon. Personnel who absolutely must be in the country should not venture beyond Christian suburbs north of central Beirut. They should consider departing the country by their own means.
Syria – this service long has advised against travel to Syria.
Iraq – this service long has advised against travel to Iraq.
Kuwait and Bahrain – Personnel should suspend travel to both countries. Those on the ground should monitor developments closely and consider departing by their own means overland through Saudi Arabia or by commercial flights.
Qatar – The diplomatically astute Qatari royal regime, which hosts the US Air Force at Al Udeid Air Base and has good working relations with Iran, is well positioned to stay of the war between Iran and Israel provided the US does not enter the fray. Nothing can be taken for granted, however. Under the best of circumstances, flights to Doha could be cut off.
Nonessential travel to Qatar should be avoided. Those on the ground should monitor developments closely and consider departing by their own means.
Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates – Once avowedly anti-Iran, the Saudi and Emirati royal regimes have stabilized relations with Tehran in recent years, chiefly because they have come to doubt that the US would defend them militarily in the event of conflict. Still, they continue to host the US military. Their nightmare is that under extreme duress in battling Israel and/or the US, Iran would attack their oil industries, their economic lifeblood.
Personnel should consider suspending nonessential travel to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Those on the ground should monitor developments constantly and consider leaving by their own means. It is essential to keep in mind that commercial flights could be halted at any moment due to the Israel-Iran war.
Oman – A longtime trusted intermediary between Iran and the US, Oman is well situated to remain aloof to the war between Israel and Iran so long as the US does not become involved. A bigger conflict could be trouble since Oman sits on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf through which the US Navy and Iranian and Gulf Arab oil exports pass.
Personnel should consider suspending nonessential travel to Oman. They should be aware of potential cancellations of commercial flights.
