There is no end in sight to the US and Israeli war with Iran, now in its third week.
With the Iranian regime badly battered but intact, President Donald Trump increasingly is weighing military options that could lead to months more of combat.
He bombed military targets on Kharg island, Iran’s linchpin oil export hub in the Gulf, on Saturday and threatened to level oil storage and loading facilities there. His administration has mulled seizing the island with US ground troops.
Also over the weekend, Trump called for European and Asian countries traditionally allied with the United States to commit naval vessels to a prospective mission to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Gulf through which some 20 percent of the world’s oil supply normally passes.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) effectively has blockaded the Strait by attacking some ships near it and threatening others, causing global fuel prices to surge.
Securing the Strait would be extremely challenging given that a single mine, drone or rocket could severely damage a tanker or naval vessel. In any case, it would take weeks to form a flotilla to escort tankers through the waterway.
Seizing the mountainous Iranian shore of the Strait with ground troops would not necessarily prevent small and devastating attacks on ships.
Last but far from least, the Trump administration continues to vow to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear bombs, which could involve a complicated and potentially large ground operation to seize small tanks of highly enriched uranium deep inside Iran.
Iran’s Shia fundamentalist regime is apocalyptic in nature and would count simply surviving the US and Israeli onslaught as a victory.
Whether it would negotiate with Trump remains to be seen.
Trump could simply declare victory and walk away, which likely would prompt the Iranian regime to allow shipping through the Strait again.
But that would leave the odious regime probably more determined than ever to build nuclear bombs and armed with the knowledge that at any time could threaten the world economy by blocking the Strait.
Meanwhile, Iranian missile and drone attacks on the Gulf Arab countries and Israel persist, albeit at a much lower rate than during the first days of the war.
In the United Arab Emirates today, a Palestinian man was killed when a missile struck a car in the Al Bahyah area of Abu Dhabi and flights were suspended briefly at Dubai’s international airport after a drone struck fuel storage tanks, causing a fire but harming no one.
Dubai airport now has suffered four drone attacks since the war began on 28 February, with several people injured.
The collective death toll from Iranian air attacks in the Gulf Arab countries is believed to remain under 20, with nearly all the victims laborers from the developing world.
Public services have not collapsed in the Gulf Arab countries and commercial activity has resumed at a lower tempo.
Limited flights from Dubai and Abu Dhabi resumed on 3 March.
Flights remain suspended in Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait.
Some commercial flights are operating from Saudi Arabia and Oman.
In the view of this service, the peril facing the Gulf Arab countries in coming days and weeks should not be underestimated.
The Gulf Arab countries should be visited only on essential business and those on the ground should consider departing by their own means. With help from colleagues outside the region, those wishing to leave continually should check with airlines while monitoring embassy messages about possible repatriation opportunities.
No attempts should be made to travel to airports to wait for flights to become available.
Personnel in the Gulf Arab countries should curtail circulation to the utmost, remaining indoors to the extent possible. When they must go out, they should steer well clear of US diplomatic facilities, oil and gas infrastructure, and military bases – all of which are prime Iranian missile and drone targets. They should monitor the advice of local authorities and their embassies. High-rises are not ideal places to be, and those stuck in a multi-story hotel or apartment building should keep in mind that underground parking garages are relatively secure from drone attack but not immune and that stairways rather than elevators should be used in the event of drone attack or fire. During air attack alerts, windows should be given wide berth. Stocking up on food and other essentials is recommended in the smaller Gulf Arab countries.
Jordan reopened its airspace to commercial flights on 3 March although with the war unfolding daily in the skies above the country it is unclear how many flights there will be.
Personnel in Jordan, where US military bases have been targeted by Iranian missiles and Iranian missiles and drones aimed at Israel constantly fly overhead, should shelter in place. The country should not be visited and those on the ground should depart by their own means.
Fighting between Israel and the Lebanese Shia militant group Hizbollah continues to intensify, with Israel conducting escalating ground operations in southern Lebanon likely to morph into a full-scale invasion.
So far, over 800 Lebanese have been killed and some 1 million driven from their homes.
Israel has been pounding Hizbollah targets in southern and eastern Lebanon from the air since fighting between the two sides erupted on 2 March, four days after the US and Israel launched their bombing campaign against Iran, Hizbollah’s longtime patron.
Israel also has heavily bombed the predominantly Shia southern suburbs of Beirut, where Hizbollah has its headquarters.
Religiously mixed central Beirut, Lebanon’s governmental and business hub, increasingly has seen precision Israeli airstrikes.
Hizbollah has launched significant missile, rocket and drone barrages against Israel, which also has been under attack from Iranian missiles.
Personnel in Lebanon should remain in Christian suburbs north of Beirut and even there should curtail circulation. They should avoid central Beirut entirely.
Lebanon’s Middle East Airlines has operated some flights to and from Beirut’s international airport, which is situated in the Hizbollah-dominated southern districts of the city. But airport and roads to it cannot be considered safe given heavy Israeli airstrikes in the immediate vicinity.
In past wars, foreigners evacuated Lebanon by boat from the Christian suburbs north of Beirut, an option feasible only if a place on a professionally operated boat and secure transportation to water’s edge is pre-arranged.
Personnel in Israel should curtail circulation sharply, familiarize themselves with the nearest bomb shelters, and heed air attack alerts and directions of authorities without exception. Personnel should keep well clear of the Lebanese border. Israel’s Ben Gurion International Airport has reopened to limited civilian flights.
